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Post by hairspray57 on Oct 24, 2021 16:44:34 GMT
Nearly everyone I know who just wants to ‘get back to normal’ hasn’t had anyone close die or become seriously ill from covid. Funny that. If you’re told a dead loved one may have survived with someone being that bit more careful/thoughtful, how would you feel? Or would you just shrug, accept their death and say, we just want to get back to normal. This isn’t directed at any one person, btw.
My neightbour thinks Covid is a conspiracy, that it doesn't really exist. By way of eidence, he says to me 'well, do you know anyone who died from it?'.
140K divided by 68 million means about the death rate is 1:500
But it's not. Most people who died have been over 65, overwhelmingly they had pre-existing conditions.
So the maths, more accurately, is that you would have to know 500 people over 65 in order to know one person who died, and that person may well have had pre-existing.
So, not many people *know* someone who died. Especially given a significant proportion were in nursing homes.
I don't take a view on your argument but I will say that probably (about) 1% of the population "has had someone close die of Covid".
More like 400 surely if you including the one in 500 children and younger people with tiny death rates. And deaths were not equally balanced throughout the country so if you in a area of a high death rates you likely would know more. s |
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Post by londonpostie on Oct 24, 2021 16:59:53 GMT
edit: I'm not going to discuss it.
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Post by olliebean on Oct 24, 2021 17:48:34 GMT
My neightbour thinks Covid is a conspiracy, that it doesn't really exist. By way of eidence, he says to me 'well, do you know anyone who died from it?'.
140K divided by 68 million means about the death rate is 1:500
But it's not. Most people who died have been over 65, overwhelmingly they had pre-existing conditions.
So the maths, more accurately, is that you would have to know 500 people over 65 in order to know one person who died, and that person may well have had pre-existing.
So, not many people *know* someone who died. Especially given a significant proportion were in nursing homes.
I don't take a view on your argument but I will say that probably (about) 1% of the population "has had someone close die of Covid".
I don't know anyone personally who died (although I do know people who were in hospital with it), but I have more than one friend who does, and I would think most people aren't more than two degrees of separation away from someone who died from Covid. So if your neighbour were to post his conspiracy theory on Facebook, for example, as one of my friends did, I'd be surprised if he didn't get at least one or two indignant comments, like my friend did, saying "Yes actually, I do know someone who died." |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2021 18:16:17 GMT
I don't know anyone personally who died (although I do know people who were in hospital with it), but I have more than one friend who does, and I would think most people aren't more than two degrees of separation away from someone who died from Covid. I haven't had anyone I know personally die from it, but when I had my hair cut after the first lockdown they'd lost two of their regular customers to it.
It's disturbing how many people on social media simply don't believe the problem is real until it affects their own friends and family. The survivors frequently end up getting vaccinated and begging everyone else to do the same, and there are quite a few people who were hesitant but changed their minds after reading stories of people who shared their fears and posted the same memes and then died pleading for a vaccine that could no longer save them. But there are still people who treat it like a famine in Africa: to them it's just numbers in the news, not something that can touch their own lives.
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Post by Dawnstar on Oct 24, 2021 18:46:11 GMT
It's completely baffling. The most surely that anyone can say is that they don't know anyone who has died of covid yet. That could change at any time for anyone.
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Post by mkb on Oct 24, 2021 18:48:03 GMT
I've had the "do you know anyone who's died?" line from science-denying loons before. I tell them about my 70yo uncle and 40yo cousin who both died prematurely due to Covid. Soon shuts them up.
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Post by lichtie on Oct 24, 2021 19:02:54 GMT
The only person I've personally known who has died of it was one of our former students who had just graduated. He was a mature student, but still only in his mid-20s. And there are a lot of people, like him, with pre-existing conditions which make them vulnerable, but who otherwise could probably have lived for a long time.
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Post by talkingheads on Oct 24, 2021 20:46:39 GMT
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Post by zahidf on Oct 25, 2021 9:28:30 GMT
SAGE models have everything going down in terms of deaths/hosptilisations going forwards. I dont see the case for ANY restrictions going forwards.
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Post by hairspray57 on Oct 25, 2021 9:59:20 GMT
SAGE models have everything going down in terms of deaths/hosptilisations going forwards. I dont see the case for ANY restrictions going forwards. Vaccine passports would be the most effective to get the rates up among the more unvaccinated age groups. |
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Post by talkingheads on Oct 25, 2021 12:44:04 GMT
What a good leader looks like. What a shame The Tories go for populism over health, otherwise we should be implementing this system in the UK.
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Post by talkingheads on Oct 26, 2021 16:10:19 GMT
Whilst over here on our shores...
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Post by zahidf on Oct 26, 2021 16:18:55 GMT
Cases going down by themselves third day in a row.
Case for plan B melts away
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Oct 26, 2021 17:02:00 GMT
Really good news this, please no long winter this year
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Post by Mark on Oct 26, 2021 17:02:46 GMT
Looks like the crisis is over before its begun yet again. What on earth will the press start scaring people with next.
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Post by Dawnstar on Oct 26, 2021 17:12:20 GMT
Interesting that the fall in cases precisely coincides with half term for most of the country. Is it that the children are not passing covid on to each other or that they're not doing routine testing so asymptomatic infections in that age group aren't being picked up? Either way, I'm not getting my hopes up until we see what the figures do after school have re-started for a week or two.
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Oct 26, 2021 17:12:33 GMT
Looks like the crisis is over before its begun yet again. What on earth will the press start scaring people with next. Come on Mark, bit early for that declaration. |
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Post by hairspray57 on Oct 26, 2021 17:33:59 GMT
What a good leader looks like. What a shame The Tories go for populism over health, otherwise we should be implementing this system in the UK. I’m not sure the Tories are going for populism. The vaccine is very popular and vaccine passports have been shown frequently to be popular in polling. |
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Post by Mark on Oct 26, 2021 17:44:58 GMT
Looks like the crisis is over before its begun yet again. What on earth will the press start scaring people with next. Come on Mark, bit early for that declaration. Aah maybe. Although the press do love to scare. Just last week it was must move to plan B, must enforce masks, must put more limitations in place otherwise we will reach 100,000 cases a day. With no interventions, cases are again falling. We need to get used to cases zig-zagging up and down forever now. As for the figures on deaths/hospitalisations? They need to start differentiating between those dying from/with covid and those who have been vaccinated and those not. Otherwise just not worth the airtime. |
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Post by southstreet on Oct 27, 2021 8:34:18 GMT
As for the figures on deaths/hospitalisations? They need to start differentiating between those dying from/with covid and those who have been vaccinated and those not. Otherwise just not worth the airtime. I think the reason they aren't doing that is because the number of people that are dying and double vaccinated is still higher than people dying who aren't, in absolute terms. However, there obviously are way more people that are double (or triple) vaxxed, so percentage-wise you're still a lot more likely to die if you aren't vaccinated but I think they aren't giving out the figures as lots of people will just look at the absolute figures and then use that to say that more vaccinated than unvaccinated are dying, which is true in absolute figures but not in realistic ones, if that makes sense. So it'll just feed into the fake news rhetoric. That is the only reason I can think of why the government throughout all this time hasn't been giving more information on the split between vaccinated and unvaccinated, because realistically it should help make the case for people to get vaccinated, but we know that many people don't like to listen to reason and will just twist the numbers to meet their own agenda. Stupid reason, because we shouldn't have to dumb things down this much for the general public, but looking how things are going in the UK, I guess it might be necessary. |
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Post by lichtie on Oct 27, 2021 9:46:49 GMT
You've hit the nail on the head there. Basically don't send out confusing messages as most people hear soundbites, not detail.
The bit about about people dieing with rather than of covid is a red herring by the way. That might explain factors of 2 difference with the rest of Europe (since they all count these things differently), but not factors of 5-10 as seen between us and some other countries. Case numbers are a different thing though, since the positivity rate here looks low compared to say Germany. So yes total numbers probably are increased by the testing, especially in schools. That's also why we might be seeing the plateau in the numbers as well - the schoolkids are building up to near herd immunity (it's also why this current wave didn't affect London as much as I've noted before, since the same pool of uninfected had already disappeared earlier in the pandemic). (John Edmunds was good on this whole topic on the Today programme this morning).
But if they are right about waning immunity after a few months in the over 50s, the decrease in incidence should not be used as a reason for people not to get boosters. Make sure if you're offered to get the flu/covid booster jabs.
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Post by olliebean on Oct 27, 2021 9:53:48 GMT
Whilst over here on our shores... Isn't it time for a proper, peer reviewed comparative study into the effectiveness of mask wearing versus conviviality? |
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Post by hairspray57 on Oct 27, 2021 12:25:25 GMT
You've hit the nail on the head there. Basically don't send out confusing messages as most people hear soundbites, not detail. The bit about about people dieing with rather than of covid is a red herring by the way. That might explain factors of 2 difference with the rest of Europe (since they all count these things differently), but not factors of 5-10 as seen between us and some other countries. Case numbers are a different thing though, since the positivity rate here looks low compared to say Germany. So yes total numbers probably are increased by the testing, especially in schools. That's also why we might be seeing the plateau in the numbers as well - the schoolkids are building up to near herd immunity (it's also why this current wave didn't affect London as much as I've noted before, since the same pool of uninfected had already disappeared earlier in the pandemic). (John Edmunds was good on this whole topic on the Today programme this morning). But if they are right about waning immunity after a few months in the over 50s, the decrease in incidence should not be used as a reason for people not to get boosters. Make sure if you're offered to get the flu/covid booster jabs. It be interesting to see how long natural immunity lasts. If that starts to fail and there is a surge of second infections that could push the figures up in the areas where the virus has been stronger. |
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Post by olliebean on Oct 27, 2021 12:50:48 GMT
Keir Starmer today is the second MP to have tested positive since Rees-Mogg's stupid little speech implying they were protected by their convivial spirit. Without wishing anyone to become seriously ill, I think I would enjoy it if a minor outbreak of mild cases amongst MPs were to show up his idiotic words for what they are so soon after he spoke them.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2021 13:11:44 GMT
Isn't it time for a proper, peer reviewed comparative study into the effectiveness of mask wearing versus conviviality? A group of peers wander over from the House of Lords and peek into the Commons.
"Yep. They're still idiots."
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