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Post by Dan213 on Dec 30, 2021 19:05:53 GMT
Hmmmm that Warwick paper looks ridiculous to me Whilst the numbers are clearly out, what it does show is bringing in restrictions now make v little difference Also step 1 (basically lockdown) brings about a similar peak, just later when there’s potential waning etc. So I think the UK will have to tough it out I'm not sure what you mean by "the numbers are clearly out". If it was that obviously wrong, I doubt the team behind it would have published it as to risk damaging their reputation within the scientific community If you look at the current, most likely scenario (80% severity) the hospitalisation rates, at present appear to actually be exceeding this. As I've said before, even if we aren't able to impact the overall number of hospitalisations (area under the curve), flattening that curve slightly, or as can be seen in one of the examples there, having 2 smaller peaks, allows the health service to cope. At the moment, the only positive we can take out of this is that fewer patients are needing mechanical ventilation, however the rate of transmission is meaning that there are huge numbers of people requiring intermediate hospital care. If this continues, then we're in the situation we were in last year whereby routine procedures and outpatient appointments start being cancelled as there is no way to provide the staff for them. |
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Post by zahidf on Dec 30, 2021 19:20:51 GMT
Hmmmm that Warwick paper looks ridiculous to me Whilst the numbers are clearly out, what it does show is bringing in restrictions now make v little difference Also step 1 (basically lockdown) brings about a similar peak, just later when there’s potential waning etc. So I think the UK will have to tough it out I'm not sure what you mean by "the numbers are clearly out". If it was that obviously wrong, I doubt the team behind it would have published it as to risk damaging their reputation within the scientific community If you look at the current, most likely scenario (80% severity) the hospitalisation rates, at present appear to actually be exceeding this. As I've said before, even if we aren't able to impact the overall number of hospitalisations (area under the curve), flattening that curve slightly, or as can be seen in one of the examples there, having 2 smaller peaks, allows the health service to cope. At the moment, the only positive we can take out of this is that fewer patients are needing mechanical ventilation, however the rate of transmission is meaning that there are huge numbers of people requiring intermediate hospital care. If this continues, then we're in the situation we were in last year whereby routine procedures and outpatient appointments start being cancelled as there is no way to provide the staff for them. We aren't getting 5000 hospitlisations a day and 500 deaths a day by Sunday |
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 30, 2021 19:37:16 GMT
I'm not sure what you mean by "the numbers are clearly out". If it was that obviously wrong, I doubt the team behind it would have published it as to risk damaging their reputation within the scientific community If you look at the current, most likely scenario (80% severity) the hospitalisation rates, at present appear to actually be exceeding this. As I've said before, even if we aren't able to impact the overall number of hospitalisations (area under the curve), flattening that curve slightly, or as can be seen in one of the examples there, having 2 smaller peaks, allows the health service to cope. At the moment, the only positive we can take out of this is that fewer patients are needing mechanical ventilation, however the rate of transmission is meaning that there are huge numbers of people requiring intermediate hospital care. If this continues, then we're in the situation we were in last year whereby routine procedures and outpatient appointments start being cancelled as there is no way to provide the staff for them. We aren't getting 5000 hospitlisations a day and 500 deaths a day by Sunday I tried to explain this in my last post but this isn't the right part of the report to be looking at. When modelling scenarios, you model a wide range of scenarios from the best case scenario to the worst case scenario. This is so that when the paper eventually reaches those deciding upon policy, they can best match the current scenario to one of the models. If for example a paper only gave a single model, the paper would quickly become irrelevant if one parameter changed. By modelling several scenarios, if the science, for example of disease severity begins to indicate something different, we can easily look at one of the either reduced or increased severity models. This is an annotated version of the report from Prof Christina Pagel, which highlights the section we should really be looking at based upon what we currently know about disease severity:  |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 30, 2021 20:40:05 GMT
however the rate of transmission is meaning that there are huge numbers of people requiring intermediate hospital care. If this continues, then we're in the situation we were in last year whereby routine procedures and outpatient appointments start being cancelled as there is no way to provide the staff for them.
More trolling nonsense.
Tell me one thing, some might think it important: what is the average stay in hospital of a unvaccinated patient with Delta (last winter) vs. a vaccinated patient with Omnicrom (this winter)?
Answer: you haven't got a clue.
Conclusion: catastrophe, scare-mongering, trolling.
How about trying this one: In addition to vaccination, how many treatments are available for Covid patients this winter vs. last winter. Lets start with Xevudy and Lagevrio ..
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 30, 2021 21:39:16 GMT
Call me daft but it doesn’t really make me very confident when hospitals are talking about building temporary structures in their car parks to house people (the ones who could be discharged but can’t be because there is no care package in place or place at a care home etc etc) …..just in case. This does not seem to me to be the behaviour of people who are not worried.
I also find the lack of official government guidance/press releases annoying. Please could the government communicate with the people on this one? Leadership anyone?
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 30, 2021 21:58:04 GMT
Let's have some fun then - we can probably device a OMG/hair-on-fire/catastrophe themed drinking game. Put up a media link talking about "temporary structures in NHS car parks"?
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 30, 2021 22:15:02 GMT
Let's have some fun then - we can probably device a OMG/hair-on-fire/catastrophe themed drinking game. Put up a media link talking about "temporary structures in NHS car parks"? I don’t understand this. Perhaps it’s an attempt at humour. That’s me gone from the conversation. Enjoy being an offensive idiot. |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 30, 2021 22:20:46 GMT
An indignant flounce but not a link. A shame, sounded important information.
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Post by Dave B on Dec 30, 2021 22:23:16 GMT
Let's have some fun then - we can probably device a OMG/hair-on-fire/catastrophe themed drinking game. Put up a media link talking about "temporary structures in NHS car parks"?
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 30, 2021 22:48:31 GMT
That's fascinating - thanks for that. So 8 x 100 places in post-treatment areas.
Given we're at 30% of last years level of hospitalisations, it seems to suggest highly localised modelling on capacity (Trust level). Also, hugely encouraging on range/availability of treatments.
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Post by zahidf on Dec 30, 2021 23:24:24 GMT
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Post by zahidf on Dec 31, 2021 15:33:55 GMT
Well
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 31, 2021 15:55:20 GMT
So this is showing greater severity than the original 80% reduction that was published using the SA data then. Also important to note than may people wont be >14 days since booster dose just yet. The second point on here is positive, yes but I thought we already knew this from previous data. We also know this begins to wane after about 10 weeks (impact on severe disease as part of this is unknown as of yet but is likely to be reduced too) |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 31, 2021 19:00:53 GMT
Ending the year on more positive news. This time last year we were entering the dakest times; the curves were at their steepest, resources were still adapting, we didn't know how or where it would end, or even stop growing. Avoiding catastrope-friendly data like cases (!!) and admissions (!!), here are year-on-year comparisons that, given a different strain of virus and effective treatments - seem useful : In hospital 365 nights ago in London because of Covid : 5,685 In hospital last night in London because of Covid : 3,636 ( 64% of one-year ago) < utilising spare capacity In hospital 365 nights ago in London and on a mechanical ventilator: 664 In hospital last night in London and on a mechanical ventilator: 238 ( 36% of one-year ago) Deaths in London 365 days ago with Covid on the cert: 129 Deaths in London last night with Covid on the cert: 37 ( 29% of one-year ago) It suggests NHS staff absences would have to be *extremely" high for the service to not be able to cope. Peak last year was 20 days away. Official NHS/ONS/Government data: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=LondonHappier New Year! |
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Post by Dawnstar on Dec 31, 2021 20:26:07 GMT
I'm afraid that I feel far more hopeless about covid now than I did this time last year. This time last year, when vaccination had just begun, I hoped that once everyone had been vaccinated covid might be almost eliminiated. A year later, most of us have been triple-jabbed & yet covid is having a whale of a time with a record number of cases today. Yes for the general population you're less likely to die of covid but vulnerable people are still vulnerable & with my mother having had a slew of major health problems in the last year she's far more vulnerable now than she was this time last year. As covid now looks unlikely to be eliminated I'll be spending the rest of her life living in fear of getting covid & then giving it to her. I'll never be able to sit in a theatre relaxed & enjoying myself, there will always be fear accompanying me to the theatre.
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Post by zahidf on Jan 1, 2022 12:53:29 GMT
Yup
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Post by Latecomer on Jan 1, 2022 12:54:14 GMT
I'm afraid that I feel far more hopeless about covid now than I did this time last year. This time last year, when vaccination had just begun, I hoped that once everyone had been vaccinated covid might be almost eliminiated. A year later, most of us have been triple-jabbed & yet covid is having a whale of a time with a record number of cases today. Yes for the general population you're less likely to die of covid but vulnerable people are still vulnerable & with my mother having had a slew of major health problems in the last year she's far more vulnerable now than she was this time last year. As covid now looks unlikely to be eliminated I'll be spending the rest of her life living in fear of getting covid & then giving it to her. I'll never be able to sit in a theatre relaxed & enjoying myself, there will always be fear accompanying me to the theatre. So sorry Dawnstar. I can only say that we are in a better place than we were this time last year and perhaps we need to recalibrate a bit longer term. The problem, in some ways, is that we are hyper sensitive to Covid risk, in a way we weren’t to things like flu, that always killed lots of vulnerable people in the winter. I know this does not seem like much comfort, as then one just goes “yes, now I know about flu I have to worry about that too”. I think maybe we need to accept that there will always be risk in life, and while your mother’s risk is higher we cannot stop living life (and it is not necessarily very effective anyway). When my very frail mother was living with me, after my dad died, I ended up with an ambulance being called when she answered 111 questions vaguely (they thought she was having a heart attack when she had strained her back). At that point I realised you cannot keep someone with health needs isolated and safe from all infections. So I suggest you try really hard to work out what you are worried about. It seems sensible to me to be worried that there will not be healthcare individuals to help when NHS is overwhelmed. So take extra precautions if you think hospitals may be struggling. Otherwise we have to have faith that the vaccinations will help keep covid mild. I realise this might not be enough to stop your mum being ill, but it is all we can do. So, when hospitals are NOT overwhelmed and things calm down a bit I suggest trying not to think too hard about all scary scenarios. She has you to alert authorities if ill and there are now antivirals etc. So your “job” becomes not stay inside all the time and have no risk, it becomes live life aware of how to signpost to help if needed. Which was always the case with flu etc. I speak from experience….it is not easy to be constantly bombarded by numbers and danger at every turn, but sometimes we just have to roll the dice and control the things we can! If it helps my mum, very frail and in care home, has only got very mild symptoms so far (like a cold). Vaccines are brilliant! And sending a big hug to anyone struggling with all this “danger/no danger” flip we all have to do all the time! Last but not least Happy New Year! |
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Post by Dan213 on Jan 1, 2022 13:12:46 GMT
I take it you've had a look back at some of this guys bizarre, verging on conspiracy theories right? |
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Post by nick on Jan 1, 2022 13:26:17 GMT
I'm afraid that I feel far more hopeless about covid now than I did this time last year. This time last year, when vaccination had just begun, I hoped that once everyone had been vaccinated covid might be almost eliminiated. A year later, most of us have been triple-jabbed & yet covid is having a whale of a time with a record number of cases today. Yes for the general population you're less likely to die of covid but vulnerable people are still vulnerable & with my mother having had a slew of major health problems in the last year she's far more vulnerable now than she was this time last year. As covid now looks unlikely to be eliminated I'll be spending the rest of her life living in fear of getting covid & then giving it to her. I'll never be able to sit in a theatre relaxed & enjoying myself, there will always be fear accompanying me to the theatre. My wife is highly vulnerable as well so you have my full sympathy. We have the added complication that my son still lives at home and is a university student. Plus we are living in London. It does feel very difficult. However we have invested in antibody tests. My wife tested a couple of days ago and got a very high score. It's not certain but it shows that she is unlikely to become very ill if she catches it. I can't tell you how reassuring it feels to have that figure. It wont stop us being cautious (no visitors and certainly no theatre for the forseeable) but once the numbers go down I think we will be confident enough to get back to something like normality. |
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Post by zahidf on Jan 1, 2022 13:42:01 GMT
I take it you've had a look back at some of this guys bizarre, verging on conspiracy theories right? He's right though As someone whos posted Eric Ding , the phrase 'those in glass houses' comes to mind |
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Post by Dan213 on Jan 1, 2022 13:51:44 GMT
I take it you've had a look back at some of this guys bizarre, verging on conspiracy theories right? He's right though As someone whos posted Eric Ding , the phrase 'those in glass houses' comes to mind That was in reference to a paper he'd linked, completely unrelated to him. It's bizarre to say that he's right when there are so many other measures that could be taken (avoiding lockdown). Having no tests available whilst telling people to keep on testing springs to mind I can try my best explain things to you but I can't help you understand them... |
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Post by zahidf on Jan 1, 2022 14:17:28 GMT
He's right though As someone whos posted Eric Ding , the phrase 'those in glass houses' comes to mind That was in reference to a paper he'd linked, completely unrelated to him. It's bizarre to say that he's right when there are so many other measures that could be taken (avoiding lockdown). Having no tests available whilst telling people to keep on testing springs to mind I can try my best explain things to you but I can't help you understand them... But to say the govt are 'doing nothing' is wrong. He's wasn't out all the things the govt have and are doing in respect of Covid |
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Post by londonpostie on Jan 1, 2022 18:52:49 GMT
I can try my best explain things to you but I can't help you understand them...
My favourite sentence.
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Post by Dawnstar on Jan 1, 2022 19:33:10 GMT
So I suggest you try really hard to work out what you are worried about. I know what I'm worried about alright: I'm worried that my mother will die & leave me on my own, & I can't cope with living on my own. The problem is the desire to not give my mother covid is in direct conflict with my desire to go to the theatre. If only I'd known back in 2004 that we would start a pandemic 16 years later then I could have tried to stop myself becoming obsessed with theatregoing but it's far too late now! Otherwise we have to have faith that the vaccinations will help keep covid mild. I realise this might not be enough to stop your mum being ill, but it is all we can do. So, when hospitals are NOT overwhelmed and things calm down a bit I suggest trying not to think too hard about all scary scenarios. She has you to alert authorities if ill and there are now antivirals etc. So your “job” becomes not stay inside all the time and have no risk, it becomes live life aware of how to signpost to help if needed. Which was always the case with flu etc. I speak from experience….it is not easy to be constantly bombarded by numbers and danger at every turn, but sometimes we just have to roll the dice and control the things we can! If it helps my mum, very frail and in care home, has only got very mild symptoms so far (like a cold). Vaccines are brilliant! I'm glad to hear that your mother is only slightly ill. One of the big problems with covid is it seems to be impossible to tell in advance how ill anyone will get with it. You get 100 year olds who are fine & 30 year olds in intensive care. I think that is one of the scariest things about it, especially if you're someone like me who has major difficulties with uncertainty. Even with vaccines some people are still ending up very ill. (I heard today that a cousin of mine, who lives abroad so I haven't seen him for years, has got covid & hasn't been vaccinated. While I hope he will be okay, my main emotion is disappointment to find I am related to someone stupid enough not to get vaccinated!) My wife is highly vulnerable as well so you have my full sympathy. We have the added complication that my son still lives at home and is a university student. Plus we are living in London. It does feel very difficult. However we have invested in antibody tests. My wife tested a couple of days ago and got a very high score. It's not certain but it shows that she is unlikely to become very ill if she catches it. I can't tell you how reassuring it feels to have that figure. It wont stop us being cautious (no visitors and certainly no theatre for the forseeable) but once the numbers go down I think we will be confident enough to get back to something like normality. I've suggested to my mother that she asks her GP if she can have a blood test to check if her vaccinations ahve worked but she doesn't seem to be interested in doing so. "No theatre for the forseeable" - that's my major dilemma. I have several performances booked in January & February that I really, really want to attend (tickets having been purchased last August) so its very difficult to decide what to do. |
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Post by ronnette on Jan 1, 2022 20:03:46 GMT
Hi Dawnster, as someone who suffers from very similar anxieties and worries as yourself, I get it. However, at some point, the inevitable will happen. I have found with my various anxieties having plans in place to help me when these inevitable things happen actually really bloody helps. I can’t tell you how to live your life, but what I can say, as someone who worried about losing my mum constantly in the exact same way you do, something completely unexpected happened and I lost her. It’s a cruel world but what it taught me was that the worrying about what could happen clouds one’s judgement and vision. You can’t see the wood for the trees sort of thing.
I lost a very good friend last week. She’d been very vulnerable to covid, lots of isolation over the last year. Died in a car accident completely not her fault, wrong place wrong time. Devastating. And made me really think all that time wasted worrying about what could happen when something left field eventually occurred.
Anyway, sorry. Off topic. But I just wanted to say I get it. But don’t ruin your life worrying about what might happen when it also might not happen.
As for Covid, cases are high where I am. And I had all the classic symptoms this week, 2 negative LFTs and after taking an age I eventually got a PCR yesterday. By 10 am this morning I had a negative result. Pretty impressive really.
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