297 posts
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Post by fossil on Dec 29, 2021 17:27:42 GMT
It has already started. My PCR test was delivered by Royal Mail on Boxing Day (Sunday) morning. I developed a cough last night but an LFT was negative. This morning I woke up feeling absolutely awful, like I have a very nasty bout of 'flu. Coughing, sore throat and aching all over. An LFT was positive so have posted off my PCR test which tracking shows is already at the sorting office. The Royal Mail web site shows you where there are post boxes with special 3pm collections for test samples. I have found the whole system superbly efficient - so far. Results are supposed to take 1-3 days. And in answer to those misguided souls who bleat on to the effect that being triple vaccinated means the illness will only be mild so why cannot they go out to play. I am triple vaccinated and if this is mild I would hate to think how a severe illness would feel. Looks like I won't be able to use my tickets for the NT on Wednesday next week! Hope you feel better soon and they give you antivirals quickly to helpā¦ Update - the PCR test result (positive) arrived via a text message at 10.04 this morning. That is quick. This was followed by a flurry of texts and emails from NHS England and Test and Trace on self isolating and links to forms for data collection, research and contact tracing. Apparently I will also be contacted within 24 hours to assess suitability for one of the new drugs. The system continues to be very efficient. My son, who was with us at Christmas, lives in Scotland. Confusingly he has been told by NHS England Test and Trace that he does not need to self isolate (even though they know he lives in Scotland) and by NHS Scotland that must self isolate until he has a negative PCR test. |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 29, 2021 22:54:19 GMT
Another hair-on-fire catastrophe averted in London yesterday, not that you get any sense of that from the mainstream and social media. A total of 9 people died with Covid as a factor, suggesting one person died in London yesterday who was vaxxed/boosted. We are now 20 days from the January hospitalisation peak and still the numbers that matter are barely moving:
I really, really hope we can start the new year feeling optimistic  |
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Post by zahidf on Dec 29, 2021 23:09:21 GMT
And that's the end of that
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 29, 2021 23:43:28 GMT
Another hair-on-fire catastrophe averted in London yesterday, not that you get any sense of that from the mainstream and social media. A total of 9 people died with Covid as a factor, suggesting one person died in London yesterday who was vaxxed/boosted. We are now 20 days from the January hospitalisation peak and still the numbers that matter are barely moving:
I really, really hope we can start the new year feeling optimistic For the sake of other forum users: This is misinformationExplanation: NHS England have not beein reporting complete death data since 24/12, therefore 9 is only the number of deaths that were reported on 28/12 (some trusts have been reporting, some haven't). The actual data from 25/12 onwards should be available from tomorrow so we'll know the true number of deaths for this period then. To check this in future, click into the view for the last month and you'll see greyed out bars indicating when the data is incomplete |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 29, 2021 23:47:27 GMT
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 29, 2021 23:50:13 GMT
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 29, 2021 23:54:50 GMT
Click on the chart and you should see what I'm talking about.Ā You'll also note that the hospitalisation dates do not match up with the dates quoted on the page you've linked either, with the latest data reported for 21/12.Ā If the page you'd linked was correct, then there should be data up until yesterday in the hospitalistions page I'm not here to spread hysteria, however if I see clear misinformation posted, I will call it out in order to help other forum users gain a clear picture of the real situation In this specific case you have stated that '9 people died in London yesterday'. This is factually incorrect and the gov.uk page even quite clearly shows this |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 30, 2021 0:03:30 GMT
Tell us again about how posters with a different pov erroneously "cherry-pick" official data over The Guardian and your other favs.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2021 5:22:15 GMT
You're all being very selective about what data you pick, and you all seem to think "I'm the one being objective; it's the other guy who's selectively picking things".
No matter what you believe, it's easy to search the Internet until you find an expert who will tell you you're right so you can wave that expert in other people's faces as if that constitutes proof that your opinion is the correct one. But your pet expert is only offering their opinion. They're not the lucky person who has been granted the gift of True Foresight. They're likely to be better at understanding the jargon in the data than you are but they're just as likely as you to allow what they hope will happen to influence their reading of that data.
We don't know what will happen. The experts don't know what will happen. That's why most of them are saying we should be cautious. Assuming the best possible outcome and barging onwards leaves us no flexibility to respond if we're taken by surprise, as has already happened several times.
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Post by edi on Dec 30, 2021 8:46:57 GMT
Edited: whilst I don't like how this discussion thread reads like a "facts" contest, nobody is forcing me to keep reading it....
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 30, 2021 10:55:53 GMT
You're all being very selective about what data you pick, and you all seem to think "I'm the one being objective; it's the other guy who's selectively picking things".
No matter what you believe, it's easy to search the Internet until you find an expert who will tell you you're right so you can wave that expert in other people's faces as if that constitutes proof that your opinion is the correct one. But your pet expert is only offering their opinion. They're not the lucky person who has been granted the gift of True Foresight. They're likely to be better at understanding the jargon in the data than you are but they're just as likely as you to allow what they hope will happen to influence their reading of that data.
We don't know what will happen. The experts don't know what will happen. That's why most of them are saying we should be cautious. Assuming the best possible outcome and barging onwards leaves us no flexibility to respond if we're taken by surprise, as has already happened several times.
I don't search the "internet for experts". It's the Office of National Statistics and the UK Gov, this is the same level official data shared with WHO and the rest of the world.
In this case, the Office of National Statistics reports data sent to NHS England, NHS Scotland, etc, by NHS Hospital Trusts. It does not have an opinion.
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Post by talkingheads on Dec 30, 2021 11:28:51 GMT
Hospitalisations are now at their highest peak since March, to the extent that they are building Nightingale hospitals again (though quite where they intend to magic up the staff from I have no idea). Where on earth is the PM?
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Post by NeilVHughes on Dec 30, 2021 11:35:12 GMT
We are monitoring and do not see any reason to introduce further controls at the moment, by the way we are dusting off the Nightingale Hospitals in preparation forā¦ā¦..
Data does look as if this wave can be contained without a lockdown but the opening of the Nightingales is counter intuitive and the problem remains as the last time, who is going to staff them.
Opening the Nightingales would indicate there is an expectation of hospitalisation to increase but maybe not the deaths as treatments have improved along with the new treatments that came on line this month.
It is that balance, maybe high hospitalisations with low deaths is the trade off to keep the economy ticking along. The only weakness in this strategy is many people have gone into voluntary lockdown, the hospitality and service sectors have seen business decimated over the last few weeks, without support and reduced footfall many businesses and the economy is in for a tough beginning to 2022.
Could be the lose/lose scenario for the economy, surging infection rates leading to a reduced workforce and consumers, maybe the Government are being pragmatic, highly infectious, critical mass in the population surpassed, no money to support businesses, this is the end game and just has to be weathered.
The only positive is that the mortality rate is not rising, still a frightening number for ānormalā times but is it the ānewā normal, we used to accept thousands of deaths from flu and now we may have to do the same for COVID.
Tough decisions and if this is the strategy why not publicise, may be the wrong course but in reality is it the only one?
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Post by og on Dec 30, 2021 11:39:37 GMT
Hospitalisations are now at their highest peak since March, to the extent that they are building Nightingale hospitals again ( though quite where they intend to magic up the staff from I have no idea). Where on earth is the PM? Army I'd guess to start with |
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 30, 2021 12:07:05 GMT
Hospitalisations are now at their highest peak since March, to the extent that they are building Nightingale hospitals again ( though quite where they intend to magic up the staff from I have no idea). Where on earth is the PM? Army I'd guess to start with I may be completely wrong here but so was under the impression that many military clinicians often work a number of days in the NHS each week when not deployed. Alongside this, the military relies heavily on reservists in medical roles, who's full time roles are usually within the NHS anyway. |
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 30, 2021 12:15:04 GMT
We are monitoring and do not see any reason to introduce further controls at the moment, by the way we are dusting off the Nightingale Hospitals in preparation forā¦ā¦.. Data does look as if this wave can be contained without a lockdown but the opening of the Nightingales is counter intuitive and the problem remains as the last time, who is going to staff them. Opening the Nightingales would indicate there is an expectation of hospitalisation to increase but maybe not the deaths as treatments have improved along with the new treatments that came on line this month. It is that balance, maybe high hospitalisations with low deaths is the trade off to keep the economy ticking along. The only weakness in this strategy is many people have gone into voluntary lockdown, the hospitality and service sectors have seen business decimated over the last few weeks, without support and reduced footfall many businesses and the economy is in for a tough beginning to 2022. Could be the lose/lose scenario for the economy, surging infection rates leading to a reduced workforce and consumers, maybe the Government are being pragmatic, highly infectious, critical mass in the population surpassed, no money to support businesses, this is the end game and just has to be weathered. The only positive is that the mortality rate is not rising, still a frightening number for ānormalā times but is it the ānewā normal, we used to accept thousands of deaths from flu and now we may have to do the same for COVID. Tough decisions and if this is the strategy why not publicise, may be the wrong course but in reality is it the only one? I agree with this but the Government should bring back the support for jobs and businesses as it really wonāt help if you plunge people into poverty, homelessness etc just for the want of, what, 2 months support? It was logical to support at the beginning of the pandemic and, in my view also the uplift in universal credit should never have been removed as the poorest amongst us donāt squirrel money away, they canāt, so they spend it. Also, if the pandemic has taught us ANYTHING it is not to believe the notion thatā¦.the budget of a country is like a household budget and we all have to cut back and economise to balance the booksā¦..it is not that simple. So if they donāt provide business support, people lose their jobs, have to claim benefits, and gov pays anyway. Be proactive. Plan. Execute plan. There are not enough army for all this support mooted. They are already driving ambulances and helping with vaccinations and lorries? Letās hope flu season doesnāt take off. And yes, I wish they would treat us like grown ups and explain their logic, instead of this ākeep vigilantā nonsense! |
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Post by talkingheads on Dec 30, 2021 12:43:51 GMT
I just cannot understand how the Goverment can quantify letting the virus rip and 'keeping the economy going' with building Nightingale hospitals with no extra staff. It's mind-boggling to me that they are letting things get this bad and the amount of new public health measures? Zero.
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Post by zahidf on Dec 30, 2021 13:43:22 GMT
More strong evidence of omicron leading to a lot less hospitlisation
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Post by zahidf on Dec 30, 2021 13:55:55 GMT
I just cannot understand how the Goverment can quantify letting the virus rip and 'keeping the economy going' with building Nightingale hospitals with no extra staff. It's mind-boggling to me that they are letting things get this bad and the amount of new public health measures? Zero. The govt has decided that the costs of new restrictions aren't warranted given how much milder omicron is. You can disagree of course but they've made it clear |
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Post by zahidf on Dec 30, 2021 14:02:05 GMT
These aren't in the models. Needs updating
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2021 15:57:21 GMT
I still wonder if we will some announcement on Saturday or Sunday as NYE will be over by then. But if they want to make schools do virtual lessons they will need to decide soon.
Also Exams are only 5 months away so if they will go ahead as planned needs to be considered now. Those who had predicted GCSE grades in 2020 will now be going towards their A-level exams so I'd think the gov would want them to have to take one full set of exams.
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Post by og on Dec 30, 2021 15:58:34 GMT
Army I'd guess to start with I may be completely wrong here but so was under the impression that many military clinicians often work a number of days in the NHS each week when not deployed. Alongside this, the military relies heavily on reservists in medical roles, who's full time roles are usually within the NHS anyway. Could well be. Obviously, its not just Medical staff that are required for them to operate. Construction is required in the first instance, services, cleaners, maintenance, distribution, catering. Many roles army can fulfil. It seems like inpatient services are being reduced and and staffing on wards downscaling slightly to cater for reallocation of staff. Im currently an inpatient, due an originally expected discharge of mid Jan. Im now looking at being discharged tomorrow for outpatient care instead. |
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Post by zahidf on Dec 30, 2021 16:39:24 GMT
Um what?  |
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 30, 2021 18:27:04 GMT
Um what? I guess what's concerning here is that. hospital admission rates are already higher than that of the best case scenario, Plan B from this report. One thing to note though is that the image in the tweet above is looking at the 50% less severe scenario when we really want to be looking at the 80% less one. I'm really hoping that we don't see deaths start to follow what we're seeing in this paper but that should become clearer in the next few days I think, by paying close attention to the London data which is a few weeks ahead of everywhere else in the UK. This is a super clear explanation of the paper, with some useful annotations: /photo/1 |
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Post by zahidf on Dec 30, 2021 18:56:05 GMT
Um what? I guess what's concerning here is that. hospital admission rates are already higher than that of the best case scenario, Plan B from this report.Ā Ā One thing to note though is that the image in the tweet above is looking at the 50% less severe scenario when we really want to be looking at the 80% less one. I'm really hoping that we don't see deaths start to follow what we're seeing in this paper but that should become clearer in the next few days I think, by paying close attention to the London data which is a few weeks ahead of everywhere else in the UK.Ā Ā This is a super clear explanation of the paper, with some useful annotations: /photo/1 Hmmmm that Warwick paper looks ridiculous to me Whilst the numbers are clearly out, what it does show is bringing in restrictions now make v little difference Also step 1 (basically lockdown) brings about a similar peak, just later when thereās potential waning etc. So I think the UK will have to tough it out |
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