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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2019 15:30:11 GMT
There is a strange view from Conservatives that Lib Dems are 'Labour Lite' and from Labour supporters that they are 'Tory Lite'. It's just disingenuous from both sides as the difference from both is clear. Now, as both of those parties have shifted to the left or right, then that difference is even clearer.
It's a by product of this ridiculous electoral system, of course, which has parties desperately trying to poach other's voters, so that you often have to vote for a second or third choice in order that your fourth choice doesn't get in. It's an absurdity that has clearly driven First Past the Post supporters quite mad.
For this election, the party that are 95% the main challenger for Lib Dems is the Conservatives. Only a few Labour seats are in danger from an improved Lib Dem vote (For what it's worth, Cambridge, Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, maybe a seat or two in London but they need huge swings).
The absolute worst thing for Labour supporters to do is to attack Lib Dems, as it will guarantee more Conservative MPs and a continued Conservative government (has no lesson been learned from 2015?). As a Lib Dem voter in a Labour/Conservative target I will vote Labour*, I would expect Labour supporters to reciprocate by doing the same in a Lib Dem/Conservative target, if Labour keep attacking Lib Dems it will only stop that happening.
(* Note, that if the local Labour Candidate was a leave supporter, then I wouldn't do so)
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952 posts
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Brexit
Oct 29, 2019 15:49:13 GMT
Post by vdcni on Oct 29, 2019 15:49:13 GMT
Indeed, I'm a Labour voter usually but I vote Lib Dem in my constituency because Labour have no chance.
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1,863 posts
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Brexit
Oct 29, 2019 15:49:34 GMT
Post by NeilVHughes on Oct 29, 2019 15:49:34 GMT
Cardinal Pirelli, thanks for your analysis and take on board what you say, Remainers need to be kind to each other and making sure their vote counts.
Strangely I have against my usual nature taken on board that a resurgent Lib Dems was more of a risk for Labour than the Conservatives, will now also check the potential impact of The Brexit Party on Labour/Lib Dem seats as have always also assumed they are a solely a risk in Conservative seats.
With tactical voting there is much more of a chance a Remainer Government will be voted in especially with the expected decimation of the Conservative vote in Scotland and am envious you are in a position to influence the outcome of this election.
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Brexit
Oct 29, 2019 16:33:28 GMT
Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2019 16:33:28 GMT
The Lib Dems won't do a deal with JC and after they did a deal with the Tories in 2010 they will remember what happened in 2015 also I couldn't see them doing a deal with Boris. JC could get SNP maybe Plaid and the Green MP or couple into a deal.
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Brexit
Oct 29, 2019 19:24:27 GMT
Post by londonpostie on Oct 29, 2019 19:24:27 GMT
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2,340 posts
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Brexit
Oct 29, 2019 19:54:42 GMT
Post by theglenbucklaird on Oct 29, 2019 19:54:42 GMT
Back to democracy for a moment - it's curious how things get diverted; I see Remain has one more vote in the next Parliament at Vauxhall with Flo Eshalomi taking over from the retiring Kate Hoey. No sign yet of Chuka '3 parties in 9 months' Umunna giving up his £77K basic. Well, she does have to get elected first. Presumably if the people of Vauxhall want a Leaver MP they’ll choose to vote for one. Chuka isn’t standing for Streatham next time so, again, if his new constituency (Cities of London and Westminster) decides that it wants him as an LD MP then he’ll be elected as one. Remarkable how this voting thing works. I heard a rumour she was in talks to stand as a DUP MP |
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2,340 posts
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Brexit
Oct 29, 2019 19:55:00 GMT
Post by theglenbucklaird on Oct 29, 2019 19:55:00 GMT
Well, she does have to get elected first. Presumably if the people of Vauxhall want a Leaver MP they’ll choose to vote for one. Chuka isn’t standing for Streatham next time so, again, if his new constituency (Cities of London and Westminster) decides that it wants him as an LD MP then he’ll be elected as one. Remarkable how this voting thing works. I heard a rumour she was in talks to stand as a DUP MP In Oireland, obviously |
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2,340 posts
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Brexit
Oct 29, 2019 19:56:21 GMT
Post by theglenbucklaird on Oct 29, 2019 19:56:21 GMT
Cardinal Pirelli, thanks for your analysis and take on board what you say, Remainers need to be kind to each other and making sure their vote counts. Strangely I have against my usual nature taken on board that a resurgent Lib Dems was more of a risk for Labour than the Conservatives, will now also check the potential impact of The Brexit Party on Labour/Lib Dem seats as have always also assumed they are a solely a risk in Conservative seats. With tactical voting there is much more of a chance a Remainer Government will be voted in especially with the expected decimation of the Conservative vote in Scotland and am envious you are in a position to influence the outcome of this election. Is everybody voting in the election as a second referendum? |
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Brexit
Oct 29, 2019 20:07:02 GMT
Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2019 20:07:02 GMT
Eleanor Laing looking out of her depth as the Deputy Speaker.
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Brexit
Oct 29, 2019 20:11:05 GMT
Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2019 20:11:05 GMT
Well, she does have to get elected first. Presumably if the people of Vauxhall want a Leaver MP they’ll choose to vote for one. Chuka isn’t standing for Streatham next time so, again, if his new constituency (Cities of London and Westminster) decides that it wants him as an LD MP then he’ll be elected as one. Remarkable how this voting thing works. I heard a rumour she was in talks to stand as a DUP MP That would be an interesting one. But as an MP of over 30 years standing, she'd likely be offered a Peerage but might have to be nominated by the Tories for one, |
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5,062 posts
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Brexit
Oct 29, 2019 20:48:04 GMT
Post by Phantom of London on Oct 29, 2019 20:48:04 GMT
Lib Dems are either being short sighted or extremely optimistic and have been extremely dismissive of a Corbyn led Labour Party. Post election and we have a hung Parliament, their position on the Government of Unity has hampered them with Labour even if they were interested and obviously their stance on Brexit would preclude the Conservatives (their Politics outside Brexit are closer to the Tories than Labour, so who knows, the precedent is there) The Lib Dems are positioning themselves as 'Tory Lite’, in the same way as the Brexit Party could facilitate us remaining in the EU, the Lib Dems could facilitate us leaving the EU as both these Parties will potentially split the votes in the 100 or so marginal seats that actually matter. I have the honour of being in a constituency where the current leave MP had over 66% of the votes and therefore even if the progressive Parties only put up one candidate my vote wouldn’t have an impact one the overall picture, this though won’t stop me from voting, this is the minimum requirement expected of anyone living in a Democracy, we should all be able to give up ½hour of our lives no matter how often to participate in the Governance of this Country. The Tory party want to be a low tax/low regulation society, albeit heading for Singapore by the Thames. There is a strange view from Conservatives that Lib Dems are 'Labour Lite' and from Labour supporters that they are 'Tory Lite'. It's just disingenuous from both sides as the difference from both is clear. Now, as both of those parties have shifted to the left or right, then that difference is even clearer. It's a by product of this ridiculous electoral system, of course, which has parties desperately trying to poach other's voters, so that you often have to vote for a second or third choice in order that your fourth choice doesn't get in. It's an absurdity that has clearly driven First Past the Post supporters quite mad. For this election, the party that are 95% the main challenger for Lib Dems is the Conservatives. Only a few Labour seats are in danger from an improved Lib Dem vote (For what it's worth, Cambridge, Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, maybe a seat or two in London but they need huge swings). The absolute worst thing for Labour supporters to do is to attack Lib Dems, as it will guarantee more Conservative MPs and a continued Conservative government (has no lesson been learned from 2015?). As a Lib Dem voter in a Labour/Conservative target I will vote Labour*, I would expect Labour supporters to reciprocate by doing the same in a Lib Dem/Conservative target, if Labour keep attacking Lib Dems it will only stop that happening. (* Note, that if the local Labour Candidate was a leave supporter, then I wouldn't do so) I wonder what seats are up for grabs for the Libs from the Tories? I would have thought Westminster and Richmond would be good shouts. Wokingham could be very possible. I wonder if Heidi Allen will do well in Cambridge South, Lucinda Berger in Finchley, Angela Smith in Altrincham., all very possible but would need big swings. Surprised Anna Soubry has joined the Libs, her seat is very close. I will be interested in finding out what Tory seats would be under threat? Although the Liberals are sadly more close to the Conservatives now, the old New Labour was essentially the Libs in disguise, if Labour do lose seats and the Liberals gain more, which is very possible and likely, Jeremy Corbyn would be forced to resign and then Labour could select a more moderate leader, someone that has policies between Corbyn and Blair and someone the Libs could work with. |
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Post by sf on Oct 29, 2019 20:53:40 GMT
I wonder if Heidi Allen will do well in Cambridge South Heidi Allen has announced today that she won't be standing for reelection. |
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5,062 posts
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Brexit
Oct 29, 2019 20:56:21 GMT
Post by Phantom of London on Oct 29, 2019 20:56:21 GMT
Great thing with a election being called is that Katie Hoey and Frank Field will not be running for Labour.
Indeed this is a second or third referendum, Europe is all what people care about now, it has become sadly a new religion?
Can people see Johnson doing well and winning seats?
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5,062 posts
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Brexit
Oct 29, 2019 20:56:54 GMT
Post by Phantom of London on Oct 29, 2019 20:56:54 GMT
I wonder if Heidi Allen will do well in Cambridge South Heidi Allen has announced today that she won't be standing for reelection. Thanks for that, didn’t see that. News seems to be overshadowed by other events!!! |
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Brexit
Oct 29, 2019 21:19:56 GMT
Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2019 21:19:56 GMT
The Tory party want to be a low tax/low regulation society, albeit heading for Singapore by the Thames. I wonder what seats are up for grabs for the Libs from the Tories? I would have thought Westminster and Richmond would be good shouts. Wokingham could be very possible. I wonder if Heidi Allen will do well in Cambridge South, Lucinda Berger in Finchley, Angela Smith in Altrincham., all very possible but would need big swings. Surprised Anna Soubry has joined the Libs, her seat is very close. I will be interested in finding out what Tory seats would be under threat? Although the Liberals are sadly more close to the Conservatives now, the old New Labour was essentially the Libs in disguise, if Labour do lose seats and the Liberals gain more, which is very possible and likely, Jeremy Corbyn would be forced to resign and then Labour could select a more moderate leader, someone that has policies between Corbyn and Blair and someone the Libs could work with. Latter point first, Lib Dems are now akin to what New Labour was but without the Iraq iD cards and stuff. There is a massive gap between the socialism of Labour and the centre to far right Conservatives now. The centre has been abandoned and Lib Dems are set to fill that gap. Will that translate into seats? Not clear yet but neither of those parties look like wanting the centrist vote for the foreseeable future. On Lib Dem targets from the Conservatives, there are scores of seats in commuting distance of London (and in South West London) like St Albans and Guildford, which are at the easier end with others from the not quite South West (the far South West less likely apart from a few like St Ives), some Cheshire seats etc. The big demographic factor is a highly educated electorate. Wherever that is the case, the Lib Dem vote will be higher. There’s also some correlation with younger professional couples and I think they will want to eat more into the young professional single vote in the future. |
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5,062 posts
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Brexit
Oct 29, 2019 22:01:08 GMT
Post by Phantom of London on Oct 29, 2019 22:01:08 GMT
I just had a look at Guildford and that would need a massive swing. St Albans less.
You mention the hallow centre ground, which everyone claims to occupy, however politics does tend to be binary, where you are either left for public services or right for tax cuts, that has now gone out of the window now and if anything it has gone more binary with Europe, which as I mentioned is the a new age religion and people are consumed by it, Since the referendum roughly a million people have passed on and the majority of these would have been Elderly and likely to be Brexit supporters, the 16-17 year old millennials that couldn’t vote in the referendum, well guess what?
I am a Labour supporter, not a particular fan of Corbyn, however I think John McDonald is excellent and if Corbyn did stand down, I would like to see him still involved in Labour front line politics. If I was living in Richmond Park, would I one Labour, if I did it would be a wasted vote.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2019 22:08:42 GMT
I just had a look at Guildford and that would need a massive swing. St Albans less. You mention the hallow centre ground, which everyone claims to occupy, however politics does tend to be binary, where you are either left for public services or right for tax cuts, that has now gone out of the window now and if anything it has gone more binary with Europe, which as I mentioned is the a new age religion and people are consumed by it, Since the referendum roughly a million people have passed on and the majority of these would have been Elderly and likely to be Brexit supporters, the 16-17 year old millennials that couldn’t vote in the referendum, well guess what? I am a Labour supporter, not a particular fan of Corbyn, however I think John McDonald is excellent and if Corbyn did stand down, I I would like to see him still involved If I was living in Richmond Park, would I one Labour, if I did it would be a wasted vote. The Guildford MP is now an ex conservative and was always towards the centre, before her it was a Lib Dem seat and the vote in the Euros for the constituency was heavily for the Lib Dems. There will be some seemingly strange results as once reliable Lib Dem prospects in Cornwall will stay Conservative yet London commuter belt ones will fall on large swings. |
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5,062 posts
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Brexit
Oct 29, 2019 22:51:25 GMT
Post by Phantom of London on Oct 29, 2019 22:51:25 GMT
Agree with that, a couple of pages back, when I said that the next general election will be decided between Tory Remainers and Labour Brexiters - by which I mean Tory voting Remainers and there are many, will now vote Liberal and the Labour Breexiters in the North, who won’t vote Labour and the ones Boris is hoping to court and bag, well they are mainly older voters and have memories of how the Tories destroyed Northern communities, they won’t now vote Tory, but will vote for the Brexit party, same in Wales. The North vote will be split and sure the Tory party and the Brexit party may win a several of Northern seats, but lose seats in Scotland to SNP and south seats to the Liberals.
Labour and Tories will Both lose seats. DUP have been pushed under the bus and reversed on. Let’s see Boris blusters around this one.
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573 posts
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Brexit
Oct 30, 2019 9:17:07 GMT
Post by Dave25 on Oct 30, 2019 9:17:07 GMT
I agree that most people will vote with just Brexit in mind, but I'm worried that the remain votes will be completely split between Labour and Lib Dems, and therefore the Conservatives win a majority in parliament and push through the Brexit the actual majority of the country does not want.
What would be the best way to vote for remainers?
I know the leave votes are split too between Conservatives and Brexit party, but I fear that has less impact as the conservatives will get a majority government anyway.
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952 posts
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Brexit
Oct 30, 2019 9:28:05 GMT
Post by vdcni on Oct 30, 2019 9:28:05 GMT
It really depends on your constituency in terms of tactical voting, there's quite a few websites that offer a guide about the best party to vote for though some of their conclusions are disputed. The one during the Euro elections got a lot of push back.
If you're in a seat that went for Labour or the Lib Dems then it's pretty obvious, if you're in a Conservative seat then it's gets a bit murkier as with the resurgence in the polls of the Lib Dems the 2017 results don't always make it obvious who is the biggest challenger.
I'm in a Lib Dem/Tory marginal so it's pretty obvious who to vote for and I think the Lib Dems will walk it here.
Who knows about the Brexit Party, if the Tories campaign on their deal then Farage will likely campaign against them for no deal but it's hard to say at this point.
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Brexit
Nov 22, 2019 10:28:19 GMT
Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2019 10:28:19 GMT
Well this was a twist no one saw coming........
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Brexit
Nov 22, 2019 11:24:44 GMT
Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2019 11:24:44 GMT
So that was ... a video.
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4,993 posts
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Brexit
Dec 20, 2019 16:25:04 GMT
via mobile
Post by Someone in a tree on Dec 20, 2019 16:25:04 GMT
After this afternoons vote we are another step closer to brexit.
I now why so many Labour MP's opposed it but I am surprised that so many still still did.
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1,863 posts
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Brexit
Dec 20, 2019 16:41:49 GMT
Post by NeilVHughes on Dec 20, 2019 16:41:49 GMT
Hedging their bets, a Deal that did not meet Labour core values and the one they really want, Brexit goes badly, the economy implodes and thereby hoping they cannot be held culpable for the mess and argue a ‘Labour, Brexit would have been softer and less disastrous.
Today’s vote in reality is an irrelevance, the true measure of Brexit will be around the time of the next election when we have a better idea of its true impact.
Intrigued to see how it all works out but would rather be a spectator than an unwilling participant.
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 20, 2019 17:07:42 GMT
Still find it incredible that we are carrying out the result of what was essentially an illegal referendum. If it had been binding it would have been challenged in court and the overspending (proved already to be illegal) would have made the result unsafe.
I harp on about it but it is and always will be ILLEGAL. I believe in democracy but this isn’t it. If we can just buy results by overspending and then paying the fines then we’re done....the cheats will just add the fines to their expenses.
Police investigation on going....but plough on. Despite the fact that it has not been the will of the people for the last year. People so sick of it that they just want to “get it done” like a trip to the dentist. Those sunlit uplands seem a long way away.....
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