Brexit

They mean farmers. Fair enough. Why not say so?

I was referring to the problem of shortages. And referencing imports. Very Brexit. 

2nd December is being talked about, apparently.

theglenbucklaird , the LibDems have currently positioned themselves as a one issue Party with the policy to sweep up as many Labour and Conservative remain voters as possible.

If Johnson gets a Deal which is ratified in Parliament the issue becomes irrelevant, the Labour & Conservative remain voters will likely return to their historical voting patterns. (Similarly for Labour & Conservative leavers in The Brexit Party)

The Deal if it transpires is almost catastrophic from a Lib Dem perspective, they will ease back into their core voters and remain the fringe Party they have become, apart from Brexit we know nothing about their current Policies and I believe they are positioning themselves as a ‘Tory Lite’ Party, the issue here is that Johnson apart from Brexit is really a ‘liberal’ at heart and his centrist policies (almost left domestically) will also impact their electability.

If Brexit is ‘resolved’ we are likely to return to a Two Party system and a lot will depend on how we feel or have been impacted by Austerity.


If the rumours of Northern Ireland remaining in the Customs Union renamed a ‘Custom Partnership’ (for the literally challenged) the very reason Johnson resigned as May was initially proposing this before the Backstop was introduced will make the 19th a very interesting day of spin, smoke & mirrors and bluff in Parliament.

The Lib Dem’s will have to vote against and will have to rely on the ERG and DUP siding with them. Labours position will depend on workers rights and as Johnson if the rumours are true has already ceded on the Customs Union in Northern Ireland, his need (desperation) for a Deal will likely lead to him ceding to Labour’s demands on workers rights and a few other caveats to get it through Parliament.

I've joked about the Lib Dems being a two or three Taxi party but they did get between 16.8 and 23% of the vote at UK Elections between 1992 and 2010 so they still have a large number of people out there who voted for them. Okay the SNP mopped up a lot of their Scottish seats and could do so again but surely a fairly well run party like them should be able to recover from the under 8% of the vote they got at the last two elections. A solid showing of 10 to 12% should be their minimum target.

If Boris does get a deal to put to Parliament and they reject it then would his hand be stronger or weaker to push for a no deal if there is some Privy Council instrument he can use to defy this. Could we see him holed up in Parliament actively defying the Supreme Court as what is said under Parliamentary Privilege cannot be held in contempt of court. We'll also have John Bercow in his last few days as speaker so he could well go as rogue as he can.

On a lighter note we have the State Opening on Monday so there should be a few Dennis Skinner one liners.

Listening to the Queen's Speech and the talk of a 2nd referendum what would there be in place for Parliament to accept the result of the 2nd referendum any more than the first one. Lets say it was 50.1% to 49.9% either way, would either side really respect this?

The Deal would have to be ratified in Parliament prior to the referendum. Any Deal would need to be part of the Act introduced to set up the referendum along with the legal framework to implement the result of the referendum with minimal or no Parliamentary process.

There is talk that an amendment would be made to the Bill to introduce Johnson’s Deal to require a confirmatory referendum but it seems unlikely at the moment any Deal instigated by Johnson would even reach enough consensus to pass with or without an amendment.

If this is not in place, as you say @brexiteer the outcome could be dismissed and the current situation remains.


This again leaves the question of how to get a Deal through Parliament:

If we go referendum prior to a General Election, the only realistic way to achieve this is through a ‘Government of National Unity’ (GNU) which negotiates a Deal that involves remaining in the Customs Union to circumvent the Irish border issue and the protection of workers rights for the left leaning Parties.

There could be a majority for this with a coalition of Labour, SNP, Lib Dem’s and soft Tory Brexiteers, the sticking point is that there is no agreement on the Leadership of the GNU, and the GNU would have to remain in place for 3-6 months to allow enough time for the referendum to take place during which it’s unity could be tested by ‘events’.


If we go General Election first and then a referendum/leave it relies on one Party getting a majority which is unlikely as still being part of the EU the Brexit votes will be split between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party and the Remain votes split between Labour and the Lib Dem’s.

Are you sure?

Politicians are not a ‘class’ anymore. Since the seventies the barriers are down, so really they are just ‘people very interested in politics’. Not the sort of phrase that populists can weaponise in their divisive rhetoric when you put it like that.

The irony, of course, is that this demoted ‘old boy network’ is maybe ever more concentrated in the ranks of those railing against current politicians. They can’t stand those without their class privilege daring to ‘take their jobs’, something indicative of the rank hypocrisy that exists among so called populists like Farage.

I suppose they haven’t got as far as making ‘global’ or ‘cultural elites’, and all of the dark history of those sort of terms, as personifying their main enemy I give them a year or two before they plumb those depths.

(on your main point, the last referendum was shoddily organised in the way it disallowed various people from voting, 700,000 British citizens alone, it is claimed.)

What about wanting to leave but not on the ‘deal’ presented? I’m just saying that a second Ref should have exactly the same q on it as the first. We kinda know what ‘leave ‘ means now don’t we?

I just wondering how much maneuvering there is going on behind the scenes. I've heard talk that some of the Tories who lost the whip may be prepared to vote through an agreed deal. No doubt this would mean the whip is returned. Also those stepping down might be dangled a peerage or a Quango job etc, I know this is immoral but things like this do go on and if MPs who are younger look likely to lose their seat then they do have to look at income streams etc.

Will Labour look to try and get some of their defectors back onside too or will the traditional Tory Right and Labour Left look to shape their parties' futures.

I could see there being support from both major parties to get a deal through as if one is done it negates Mr Farage who could well take major votes from both parties. Boris wants Brexit and I think JC can live with it and would want to then try and pitch his policies to an electorate.

A deal and an election would that be too much to hope for?

Relieved so many football fans from a Empire of Virtue member state didn't have to endure for a minute longer those ignorant, bigoted, In-ger-lan supporters last night.