5,073 posts
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 0:59:51 GMT
Post by Phantom of London on Sept 8, 2019 0:59:51 GMT
Government is Rudderless now And heading for an iceberg. Rumours were circulating on Thursday that Rudd was about to resign. Looks as if she waited for the Sunday’s to have maximum impact and surrendering the whip makes her 22 and further reduces Johnson’s majority. Could be/ There Is a realignment of the Conservative Party taking place, interesting to see if any more jump ship now that Johnson has pushed the Party too far, it couldn’t have been comfortable having Tommy Robinson’s crew chanting Boris is a hero today. Will be interesting how this is spun if it can, the Tory grandees will need to act fast as having your Party fall apart is not a good platform to go to the Polls. Ken Clarke is also not too kind in the Observer and says he may vote Lib Dem at the election. The only potential Tory good news is that 3% of the Brexit Party vote has moved over to the Tories as per Observer Poll confirming the strategy to become the Brexit Party is working. In the same poll it continues to show a strong Lib Dem standing and appears to be picking up Labour voters and now another ex Labour MP joins the Lib Dem’s. Can the Lib Dem’s/Labour/SNP work as a coalition? as that may be where we are heading. Other Tory MP’s will follow especially Nicky Morgan and James Brockenshire. The Sun newspaper seems to back Boris, I wonder if the Sun agreed to back Boris, if he swapped to the other camp, they would back him to be Prime Minister? Brexit referendum wouldn’t have happened without Farage, Johnson and Putin, so a big coup Politics is binary, not so long ago it was whether you wanted better public services or lower taxes, it seems to have moved on. No doubt Brexit supporters will jump ship to the Tory party. How many Tory supporters also want to remain in Europe and can never now vote Tory, so now will consider the Libs. How many businesses bankrolled the Tory party, find they cannot trade effectively and will re-consider their financial management decision. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2019 1:19:02 GMT
The Lib Dems would never do a coalition with Corbyn as PM IMO. Also loom what happened after they went into coalition in 2010 and lost over 25 years of hard work of building up the party at the 2015 election. The SNP might support Corbyn but it would be conditional on another referendum. A few of the other smaller parties or one man bands might help out but without the Lib Dems I couldn't see them getting the required numbers. Labour had 262 seats last time and the current betting indicates them at around 238 seats. I'll split the difference and lets say they get 250 seats. The SNP may do very well again and get 45 to 50 seats. That would only put them at a combined 300 best case scenario. Lib Dems would likely give confidence and supply to a minority Corbyn led Labour government, stopping short of being coalition partners. |
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 1:29:04 GMT
Post by londonpostie on Sept 8, 2019 1:29:04 GMT
Well, the people are with PM Johnson, decisively it seems: Third poll down (at the bottom):
This would seem to suggest there is nothing wrong with the system, other than Parliament's refusal to accede to the peoples' wishes - whether on the Referendum or on a General Election.
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2,342 posts
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 7:36:40 GMT
Post by theglenbucklaird on Sept 8, 2019 7:36:40 GMT
The Lib Dems would never do a coalition with Corbyn as PM IMO. Also loom what happened after they went into coalition in 2010 and lost over 25 years of hard work of building up the party at the 2015 election. The SNP might support Corbyn but it would be conditional on another referendum. A few of the other smaller parties or one man bands might help out but without the Lib Dems I couldn't see them getting the required numbers. Labour had 262 seats last time and the current betting indicates them at around 238 seats. I'll split the difference and lets say they get 250 seats. The SNP may do very well again and get 45 to 50 seats. That would only put them at a combined 300 best case scenario. Yep how I see it, Swinson is closer to Johnson than Corbyn politically |
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 8:59:32 GMT
Post by londonpostie on Sept 8, 2019 8:59:32 GMT
Classic senior politician stuff from Amber Rudd - perfect timing to steal the Sunday headlines with her decent and moral stance. Much in the mainstream middle-class liberal media about how the latest poll has almost 3:1 in favour of PM over Parliament?
Lets guess which they will run with.
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227 posts
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Post by ukpuppetboy on Sept 8, 2019 9:54:29 GMT
As a Brit abroad can anyone tell me if ANY positive aspects to leaving the Union have emerged since the vote? Ones that can actually be verified. Apart from that (short term) 20p price cut at Wetherspoons (and rampant city currency speculation and dodging the new year EU Tax Avoidance directives)?
Much like with Trump in America the rest of the world looks on bemused as to why any nation would act with such wilful self-destruction.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2019 10:11:03 GMT
As a Brit abroad can anyone tell me if ANY positive aspects to leaving the Union have emerged since the vote? Ones that can actually be verified. That is the question I've been asking people who voted Leave since June 2016. No-one has been able to give me a proper answer. |
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 10:18:45 GMT
Post by londonpostie on Sept 8, 2019 10:18:45 GMT
All you need to do is put 'populism' in Google and read for 30 minutes.
People like Eric Kaufmann have been studying it now for two decades. It is not a new concept.
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3,040 posts
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Post by crowblack on Sept 8, 2019 10:21:53 GMT
having your Party fall apart is not a good platform to go to the Polls. I don't think some voters care anymore - look how many votes the Brexit Party picked up from nowhere. And the other parties are also in a mess: I know one shouldn't mistake one's Twitter/Facebook timelines for "the country" but given some of the comments many of the middle-class arts types on my Twitter have been coming out with about Corbyn Labour I can't see them voting for the party while he leads it (many are now Lib Dems, I think) , but having now pushed him to a vague 'people's vote/remain' position, Corbyn Labour may also lose the traditional Labour working class heartland vote too. I think that's what Tory strategists are counting on and they may well be right. There was an interesting programme on radio 4 yesterday about Tump - basically, people know he's a liar but they just don't care. Incidentally, I saw they'd put 'In the Loop' on TV yesterday but I think that TV satire has actually contributed to the mess we are in now - if you constantly portray politicians as dimwitted and inept or venal charlatans it sort of becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, lowering our expectations and discouraging people from going into it. I've said this before but it's a shame all those well-educated, politically engaged, energetic, Left-leaning Oxbridge satirists didn't go into Actual Politics rather than spending their time criticising the appalling quality of MPs today from their blue tick Twitter accounts or on Radio 4 comedy shows. |
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227 posts
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Post by ukpuppetboy on Sept 8, 2019 10:28:53 GMT
I’ll take that as a “no”. All you need to do is put 'populism' in Google and read for 30 minutes.
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 10:30:42 GMT
Post by londonpostie on Sept 8, 2019 10:30:42 GMT
I'll take that as intellectually incurious.
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1,972 posts
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Post by sf on Sept 8, 2019 10:59:50 GMT
As a Brit abroad can anyone tell me if ANY positive aspects to leaving the Union have emerged since the vote? Ones that can actually be verified. That is the question I've been asking people who voted Leave since June 2016. No-one has been able to give me a proper answer.
Me neither. Any form of Brexit will inflict a certain degree of economic harm, all but the very softest form of Brexit will strip established rights from every single UK citizen and impose unnecessary difficulties on EU citizens living in the UK, and there is no tangible benefit.
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1,863 posts
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 11:10:00 GMT
Post by NeilVHughes on Sept 8, 2019 11:10:00 GMT
Latest rumour, if Johnson will not request an extension or get a Deal as per the No-Deal Bill and become disruptive
14th Oct: A vote of No-Confidence will be called on the Government.
15th/16th Oct: A neutral temporary Prime Minister will be chosen and agreed by Parliament (allegedly the person has been agreed by the Opposition Parties and accepted by the individual)
16th/17th Oct: The neutral Prime Minister will request an Extension and call an Election for late Nov / early Dec and attend the EU Meeting on the 17th/18th.
19th Oct: Parliament closes and the canvassing begins.
An intelligent course of actions, if it does not come about, even knowing it exists ratchets the pressure on Johnson, the big question is can the Opposition remain united for this long especially as in the interim there will be Party Conferences which could introduce fracture lines.
Continues to show the No-Deal faction (in reality the Government in all but name) appear to always have a contingency to the Johnson/Cumming master plan and the majority request for a snap General Election has been listened to.
If made public it will be after Prorogation has commenced and will say that we would like to introduce earlier but cannot as the Government has shut down Parliament until the 14th Oct and this is the earliest we can introduce.
I would also like this neutral Prime Minister to call for a new referendum at the same time, unlikely as the Opposition Parties believe they can only get a mandate for this with a General Election and there isn’t consensus on what will be presented on the voting slip.
For those interested in Polls, the one in the Sun today:
Tories: 31%
Labour: 28%
Lib Dems: 17%
Brexit: 13%
Others: 10%
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2019 11:32:41 GMT
Classic senior politician stuff from Amber Rudd - perfect timing to steal the Sunday headlines with her decent and moral stance. Much in the mainstream middle-class liberal media about how the latest poll has almost 3:1 in favour of PM over Parliament?
Lets guess which they will run with.
Resignations are real, polls are hypothetical. Broadcast media will always lead on actual happenings, the more excitable (and biased) print media have no such qualms. |
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 11:41:56 GMT
Post by londonpostie on Sept 8, 2019 11:41:56 GMT
It's hardly a regular poll.
There are those who might think Parliament refusing the will of the people seemingly at a rate of 3:1 is more significant, given it's constitutionally unprecedented and historic.
But sure, others may think the arch opportunist finding a double win of the Sunday headlines and abandoning her majority in Hastings and Rye of ... erm, ... 346 is more important.
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 12:21:34 GMT
sf likes this
Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2019 12:21:34 GMT
For those who are ‘intellectually incurious’. “it would not be an exaggeration to say that Goodhart, Goodwin and Kaufmann are the triumvirate of the academic alt-right as their names are often bundled together by anyone who wants to make a case for populism and/or against a vaguely defined liberal left. Judging by the frequency of their invariably positive references to each other’s work, it seems happily so.” Umut Ozkirimli, Turkish political scientist www.opendemocracy.net/en/white-is-new-black-populism-and-academic-alt-right/So, having pointed out the danger, here he is speaking for himself. www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/a-political-scientist-defends-white-identity-politics-eric-kaufmann-whiteshift-bookn.b. I first came across him via Andrew Sullivan, once UK conservative who writes for the New Yorker and who had a popular blog previously. I agree at times with Sullivan and disagree just as much but that makes him interesting to follow. My own thoughts are that he is giving succour to the far right; he must know this, yet he denies that it is his intent. I go by reality, he is an enabler and fellow traveller with those who seek to profit from white grievance (Spiked on the revolutionary left - or maybe the Cummingsesque revolutionary right now - also like him, so that’s an automatic warning sign in my book). |
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 12:36:43 GMT
Post by londonpostie on Sept 8, 2019 12:36:43 GMT
LOL. 'Alt-right' probably the smear term of 2017.
All you have to do is read a little. No one is asking you to sleep with Professors at English universites (Goodwin and Kaufmann).
Alert: Academic !!
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2,763 posts
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Post by n1david on Sept 8, 2019 13:03:48 GMT
The 20p price cut at Wetherspoons is a complete joke. There’s no customs duty on beer, so leaving the Customs Union won’t change the cost of importing beer from anywhere. Yet the Sun and Express say the price cut is a direct effect of leaving the EU. But we haven’t yet. So isn’t the only thing being shown is that Wetherspoons can afford to cut beer prices by 20p now...
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 13:12:11 GMT
Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2019 13:12:11 GMT
Agree a deal is the best option, but have always thought we need to maintain the leverage of a no deal threat to get one. What leverage? It's no problem for the EU if we crash out with no deal - they will have us over a barrel for subsequent trade negotiations and they didn't have to back down - aside from some inconvenience in terms of process in the short term, it is win-win for them. I am genuinely interested to understand why you think No Deal is leverage, because I haven't seen anyone give a convincing explanation of that Boris argument yet. Sorry for the delay, poster J - busy weekend! For me it’s simple - a guy who used to be head honcho at Next put it perfectly recently when he spoke about Brexit from the point of view of a businessman: you have to be prepared to walk away from any negotiation. If you’re not prepared to walk away, you’re not negotiating - you’re pleading. Clearly Britain has more to lose from no deal than Europe. But it’s not going to be a fun time for anyone. We have things they want - eg that divorce bill money, our waters for fishing, the trade we’ve been doing (German industry has been exhorting Merkel for ages to strike a deal because they can see how tough it will get for them in a No Deal scenario - especially as they now appear to be heading for recession). There were reports recently that the EU may declare a state of emergency to free up money to try to offset the cost to them of No Deal. Yet some still think they have nothing to lose by not negotiating...? |
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 13:12:37 GMT
Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2019 13:12:37 GMT
LOL. 'Alt-right' probably the smear term of 2017.
All you have to do is read a little. No one is asking you to sleep with Professors at English universites (Goodwin and Kaufmann).
Alert: Academic !! Missing the point, I see. His views are widely followed by the contemporary right. It just points out who might be in tune with him, that’s all. The interview lets him put across his ideas relatively unmediated. People can make up their own minds. One thing is for sure, the people that we have in power (especially the now shrunken Conservative party) have read him, heard him and will use him, whether that be in support of detention camps or by limiting the number of those Europeans who live, work and contribute to this country, being granted settled status. |
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 14:00:22 GMT
Post by londonpostie on Sept 8, 2019 14:00:22 GMT
His views are widely followed. Full stop.
Largely becasue he and his department at Birkbeck has more academic experience of the subject matter than pretty well anyone else.
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 15:00:32 GMT
Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2019 15:00:32 GMT
Widely followed, yet not widely trusted.
Aided by the way that left politics has recently attempted to downplay class as being a driver of contemporary politics, he uses that as an excuse to deflect onto issues of racial grievance. Maybe if he was from this country and born into the sections of society he is talking about (and, unlike him, I am) he wouldn’t be so scattershot and wedded to demographic matters instead of social ones.
At its heart, what are class issues are made into issues surrounding ‘culture’. A denial that losses are economic, that losses are pan racial, that, instead they are about loss of white identity. He’s actually at one with his derided ‘campus liberal’, only he replaces whiteness as automatically creating privilege by it automatically creating grievance, Simplistic, divisive, dangerous.
You can ask people who I grew up around and they will agree with him, yet go just a little deeper and you find that their grievance is related to the economic difficulties that are class based. Defeat populists by addressing class inequality, it can be done by liberals, socialists, even one nation conservatives. The identitarian left and right benefit from what he says, it lets them off the hook.
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 16:51:21 GMT
Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2019 16:51:21 GMT
Latest rumour, if Johnson will not request an extension or get a Deal as per the No-Deal Bill and become disruptive 14th Oct: A vote of No-Confidence will be called on the Government. 15th/16th Oct: A neutral temporary Prime Minister will be chosen and agreed by Parliament (allegedly the person has been agreed by the Opposition Parties and accepted by the individual) 16th/17th Oct: The neutral Prime Minister will request an Extension and call an Election for late Nov / early Dec and attend the EU Meeting on the 17th/18th. 19th Oct: Parliament closes and the canvassing begins. An intelligent course of actions, if it does not come about, even knowing it exists ratchets the pressure on Johnson, the big question is can the Opposition remain united for this long especially as in the interim there will be Party Conferences which could introduce fracture lines. Continues to show the No-Deal faction (in reality the Government in all but name) appear to always have a contingency to the Johnson/Cumming master plan and the majority request for a snap General Election has been listened to. If made public it will be after Prorogation has commenced and will say that we would like to introduce earlier but cannot as the Government has shut down Parliament until the 14th Oct and this is the earliest we can introduce. I would also like this neutral Prime Minister to call for a new referendum at the same time, unlikely as the Opposition Parties believe they can only get a mandate for this with a General Election and there isn’t consensus on what will be presented on the voting slip. For those interested in Polls, the one in the Sun today: Tories: 31% Labour: 28% Lib Dems: 17% Brexit: 13% Others: 10% I haven't heard this slant on it before. The Queen's Speech is 14th October and a vote on that would be the next day and that would effectively be a vote of confidence in the Government. Boris would be very unlikely to get a Queen's Speech passed but if he lost a vote on confidence then he would have 14 days to try to win one, could resign, could recommend to the Queen who should form the next Government. As he doesn't have to ask for the extension until 19th October - whatever his intentions nothing can really happen before then. Also if we did appoint a "Unity PM" would they form a Government if Parliament was dissolved again for an election. People cease to be MPs during an election campaign but are still PM, Leader of Opposition, Home Secretary etc. Some sort of ragbag of crossparty ministers wouldn't really be workable. A caretaker PM who may not even be standing as an MP again for example Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman could work. There has even been talk that Boris might resign and engineer it so that Corbyn would be PM to go and ask for the extension, so anything is possible. Even Europe refusing us an extension with President Macron rumoured to be prepared to veto any extension. Maybe that is what is needed Europe to play hard ball so we have to try and find parliamentary consensus to get a deal. Their risk there would be that Boris would probably let us crash out and hope to win the election as it would have negated Mr Farage if we are out. |
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2,342 posts
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 18:37:47 GMT
Post by theglenbucklaird on Sept 8, 2019 18:37:47 GMT
That is the question I've been asking people who voted Leave since June 2016. No-one has been able to give me a proper answer.
Me neither. Any form of Brexit will inflict a certain degree of economic harm, all but the very softest form of Brexit will strip established rights from every single UK citizen and impose unnecessary difficulties on EU citizens living in the UK, and there is no tangible benefit.
But we now get to decide ourselves to inflict economic harm? |
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2,342 posts
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Brexit
Sept 8, 2019 18:48:31 GMT
Post by theglenbucklaird on Sept 8, 2019 18:48:31 GMT
Latest rumour, if Johnson will not request an extension or get a Deal as per the No-Deal Bill and become disruptive 14th Oct: A vote of No-Confidence will be called on the Government. 15th/16th Oct: A neutral temporary Prime Minister will be chosen and agreed by Parliament (allegedly the person has been agreed by the Opposition Parties and accepted by the individual) 16th/17th Oct: The neutral Prime Minister will request an Extension and call an Election for late Nov / early Dec and attend the EU Meeting on the 17th/18th. 19th Oct: Parliament closes and the canvassing begins. An intelligent course of actions, if it does not come about, even knowing it exists ratchets the pressure on Johnson, the big question is can the Opposition remain united for this long especially as in the interim there will be Party Conferences which could introduce fracture lines. Continues to show the No-Deal faction (in reality the Government in all but name) appear to always have a contingency to the Johnson/Cumming master plan and the majority request for a snap General Election has been listened to. If made public it will be after Prorogation has commenced and will say that we would like to introduce earlier but cannot as the Government has shut down Parliament until the 14th Oct and this is the earliest we can introduce. I would also like this neutral Prime Minister to call for a new referendum at the same time, unlikely as the Opposition Parties believe they can only get a mandate for this with a General Election and there isn’t consensus on what will be presented on the voting slip. Are you Chukka Ummuna? Deleted the poll in the quote. The scum (shakes head) |
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