Brexit

Leaving with no deal, it will take years and years to get a deal that will still be worse than at present. If we are desperate to get a deal with the US and others quickly we will be taken to the cleaners.

Leaving with May’s deal, all of that applies but (with the backstop) we will have a period so that things don’t get so bad, so quickly.

Leaving but remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market, will have us retain most of the benefits but without any say in them. This would be quick but make us politically weaker. Similar with the Norway style Single Market but not Customs Union option.

Remaining will happen overnight and, the next day, the government can start to govern properly again.

If people want this to stop then neither no deal or May’s deal will do that. 

What is embarassing to witness is people still trying to deny that Brexit will be an economic disaster at the very least in the short term, if not the long. The Leave campaign certainly did not explain that, so it isn't revisionism in the slightest to say they misled even if you don't agree that they lied (though they clearly did on the bus if nothing else).

And that's beside the fact that anyone could have done their own research and easily discovered just how disastrous this was always going to be.

Bit revisionist that

For those wondering why there are ‘Defend Democracy’ and ‘Stop The Coup’ Demonstrations today despite the opportunity for a General Election.

The reasons as I see it are

1. Prorogation has not been ruled out, we need to ensure this option is not available in the future, we cannot close Parliament for Political gain.

2. The statements by Johnson that he is potentially not going to follow the law and implement a Parliamentary Bill is the destruction of the foundation of Parliamentary Democracy.

These UnDemocratic positions need to be resolved and pressure continued to be applied to ensure these situations cannot be considered in the future, only then can we have General Election.


Once resolved we can move on and introduce a Deal by the end of October or have General Election in November or early December.

A General Election will likely produce another hung Parliament and dependant on the way we vote we will either leave without a Deal or have a second referendum by the end of January. (Brexit Party/Tory Coalition or Labour/Lib Dem/SNP Coalition)

Unlikely, my understanding is the EU Position was garnered before the No-Deal Bill was considered and the Tory defectors only jumped ship when they were confident that the EU would agree to an extension.

This has further angered Cummings and Co as they see themselves as the only ones allowed so speak to the EU conveniently forgetting all Parties have MEP’s

This becomes a bigger joke by the day, all the in fighting, insults etc. No-one will stand up and try to take a lead and get things sorted.

I voted for Brexit and want it done but a no deal could cause more issues so I really want an agreed withdrawal agreement done so we can get out and just get back with day to day politics.

No-one comes out of this week well - The Tories potentially throwing the Father of the House and Churchill's grandson out of the party. Labour who want an election but then they don't, the SNP who want to remain in Europe but take Scotland independent and effectively out of the EU and then back in again. A load of MPs who have defected from their parties and are running around trying to secure a political future elsewhere, a clearly impartial speaker who goodness knows what he'd do if there was another election as regards standing.

The courts seem to being dragged into everything and this could set a dangerous precedent as anything contentious going forward could end up before the courts then you could have MPs using parliamentary privilege to say things that would be liable or in contempt of court etc.

I can understand the opposition MPs not wanting to agree to an election if Boris and co could move the date to after Brexit deadline and with parliament dissolved nothing could be done.

We need an election but the campaign could get very bitter and would be dominated by Brexit which does no parties any real favours. With MPs possibly standing as independents and the Brexit party fielding a lot of candidates the votes in some areas could be totally split and we end up with some strange results. Throw in the likely purge of moderates from both main parties and it could be a really hostile campaign.

lynette I couldn't agree with you more about 'generations of politicians' on both sides of the House. I think there's a real problem that the amount of scrutiny on politicians now, the possible abuse - not just to them but to friends and family - and the alarming cost of standing for election is greatly minimising the talent pool for our MPs and dissuading a lot of potential strong politicians. (Isabel Hardman's book "Why we get the Wrong Politicians" is great on this).

I think the particular focus on Soames with respect to Johnson is that he has repeatedly and cynically used Churchill's name as a personal hero and an inspiration, to the extent of writing a (widely panned) biography of Churchill. I think that's why this has become a particular point of focus.

The trouble is, a withdrawal agreement won't take us back to day-to-day politics/business as usual/whatever. A withdrawal agreement only addresses the terms of the divorce. The exact nature of the future relationship - a trade deal, security, citizens' rights, freedom of movement and all the rest of it - still has to be addressed, and those negotiations will dominate the news for years after the withdrawal date. We'd  avoid crashing out without a deal and there'd be some kind of transition period where arrangements stay broadly as they are now, but in terms of the negotiations a withdrawal agreement is only phase one.

Indeed. Even a carefully thought-out and well-organised Brexit (which is not the type of Brexit we are getting!) would take up another few years of negotiations and political oxygen.

This clusterf*** of a Brexit is likely to be dominating our politics for the next decade!

Names open doors. We all know that. Might be a revolving door of course if not up to scratch. 

Rumours were circulating on Thursday that Rudd was about to resign.

Looks as if she waited for the Sunday’s to have maximum impact and surrendering the whip makes her 22 and further reduces Johnson’s majority.

Could be/ There Is a realignment of the Conservative Party taking place, interesting to see if any more jump ship now that Johnson has pushed the Party too far, it couldn’t have been comfortable having Tommy Robinson’s crew chanting Boris is a hero today.

Will be interesting how this is spun if it can, the Tory grandees will need to act fast as having your Party fall apart is not a good platform to go to the Polls.


Ken Clarke is also not too kind in the Observer and says he may vote Lib Dem at the election.


The only potential Tory good news is that 3% of the Brexit Party vote has moved over to the Tories as per Observer Poll confirming the strategy to become the Brexit Party is working.

In the same poll it continues to show a strong Lib Dem standing and appears to be picking up Labour voters and now another ex Labour MP joins the Lib Dem’s.

Can the Lib Dem’s/Labour/SNP work as a coalition? as that may be where we are heading.

What’s clear in the last few years is that our electoral system is just not fit for purpose. In any country with proper PR both the Tories and Labour would have split into smaller parties allowing a General Election to give a clearer view of public opinion. No change is going to happen, which is why a GE is not going to change much - most people are still going to have to decide between two big parties, with whom many people won’t buy into everything, and the opportunity for a statement vote, be it Brexit Party or LibDems, will be a waste.

The Tories managed very effectively to kill any change to our electoral system with the AV vote. Dominic Cummings ran that campaign. I wonder now if he thinks that a more representative electoral system might actually have been in his favour?