Brexit

She’s just made a speech and she’s refusing to go. Woman knows where the bodies are buried, I’m telling you - sh*t about to hit the fan.

Going to be an interesting day!

I don't think she'll be voted down. Well, I'll be surprised if she is. Most MPs, including some of those who think she's doing a terrible job, will recognise the chaos of having a leadership contest now and will consider her the lesser of two or three evils.

Going against that is the demented, staring-eyed religious devotion to brexit of the hard-line leavers in parliament who are willing to scorch the earth of everyone and everything they perceive as standing in its way. If they have sufficient numbers there's no question they'd be fine with creating as much wreckage as need be as long as the hardest possible brexit emerges from the smoking ruins. But do they have those numbers?

As for Johnson or Rees-Mogg: BJ doesn't have the numbers or sufficient support in the parliamentary party. More of them resent or are embarrassed by him than might be supposed. JRM has less credibility than might seem apparent from his high profile, which is out of proportion to his actual significance. And he embarrassed himself and his ERG chums with the aborted, shelved 'alternative deal' proposal that was apparently so bad even prominent brexiters like BJ and Davis backed away from it at speed and refused to be seen in its vicinity. Some were openly laughing at it. If by some ghastly miracle he became leader, a major Tory schism would be likely I reckon.

If it gets to it, I'd say Rudd, Hammond, Javid.... Davis? Gove? Hancock?

(swallows hard, takes deep breath)

....Hunt?

That was like a really depressing version of the names-list bit from Vogue. Whoever it is, we will be through the bottom of the barrel and into the fetid festering slime below.

Quite apt for the time of year, Turkeys voting for Christmas.

Likelihood she will survive, if the Tory MP’s do get rid of her they are even more stupid than I thought, they will be leaderless without a succession plan and more importantly will have ntroduced more uncertainty to these already uncertain times, no one is even close to a workable solution which will now be hindered by a Ldership contest which only the self interested can vote. (seen a plea by leave UK for their supporters to join the Tory Party to influence the leadership election)

Having voted in every Election since I turned 18 beginning to lose faith in Democracy, as a collective we seem to have lost (or maybe it wasn’t there) the ability to see above, the self interest of the few, manipulated by sensationalism, to think we are more educated than at any other time in history, when you would expect the ‘IQ’ of the nation to be at its highest we seem to be more stupid than ever and even truer for our elected representatives.

I think she'll hang on, which in my opinion is something of a relief as there are very few politicians on either the Government or Opposition benches I'd like to see take over, and that's despite not being in the least bit a fan of Mrs May. There is the issue that it's a secret ballot, so MPs stating publicly that they will vote for her may do something else in the privacy of the polling booth.

Thatcher of course won her first round (albeit under a different system), but within hours realised that she was wounded, and ended up standing down despite getting the numbers first time round. For a time today I thought that if May would get 100 or 130 votes against her, she would do a Thatcher and say well, I've won but there's obviously a strong body of opinion against me so I can't carry on. In reflection, she's had many setbacks, not least after the 2017 election, and she doesn't seem like the standing-down type, so even if she gets 157 votes against her then I think she'll carry on.

In which case, what happens next? The EU27 seem pretty fixed in not changing anything in the legal agreement, and many of the MPs opposed to her agreement say that reassurances without legal weight won't change their minds, so it's likely that her deal will fall whenever it reaches the Commons. And then, what? Will we fall straight into no-deal planning (a nightmare), or will someone (May? If not, whom?) move to delay Brexit? Remember, we can cancel Article 50 unilaterally, but if we want to extend it, that requires the consent of 27 other countries. Would they give an extension, and if they said no, would we withdraw Article 50 in order to avoid no-deal?

We live in interesting times. As someone fascinated by politics, it would be an incredibly fun period if it wasn't so f*cking important.

Do we think James Graham will put his play on at the NT or Donmar? Working title: Descent into Chaos.

Former PMs certainly get good book deals and speaking engagements. Few tend to take on directorships - John Major did of a company called Mayflower which went bust!. But they will act as advisers/influencers etc being able to bring relevant people together/networking.

A PM who stepped down used to get an automatic half salary pension for life even if they were still an MP - not sure how it worked if they remained party leader. This was changed in the last few years and David Cameron hasn't claimed his yet. The Lord Chancellor and Speaker were on similar deals - a lot of uproar occurred when Derry Irvine walked off with this lucrative pension. John Bercow is on this deal and has said he'll take this pension but not until he is 65. 

Former PM's tend to give up their seat as an MP when they step down from the top job now as if they are an MP then outside income has to be declared and likewise this might be why all recent PMs have shied away from going to the Lords whilst most other senior ministers or party leaders have accepted a peerage when they step down from the Commons.

The thing is if she does go then a leadership election takes time unless an uncontested contender emerges. MPs have to vote then I think it is a postal vote to members which would take us the other side of Xmas possibly into New Year. Constitutional issues - if the Queen is up in Scotland does new PM travel up there to be formally appointed or could Charles do it in her place!

The Queen could delegate the roll if she was up in Balmoral but Charles would likely be with her. But the compromise would likely be he'd travel back to London to meet new PM if it ended up being a minor royal then it could be a seen as a snub.

I don't know if the new PM has to be formally seen by the Queen to "officially" take power, if it has to be a Buckingham Palace or could be at any Royal Residence. Imagine them doing it by Skype or VC!

To be fair, I doubt anybody could "manage the Brexit process" successfully. When people vote for a scenario that is impossible to deliver without significantly damaging the economy, seriously eroding our rights, and placing millions of citizens and businesses in limbo, political gridlock is inevitable.

I think that parliament still has a majority for a few things although they only exist if party lines are crossed. Pretty definitely there is a majority to extend the Article 50 deadline, quite probably a majority to put the vote for deal/no deal/revoke to the electorate and, maybe more tenously, to immediately revoke Article 50, let the dust settle and work out what to do next without disaster looming so close.

I imagine that May will only go if she loses the vote.

🤣🤣

The last thing that should be allowed to happen is to let something take place because people are tired and bored. This is our lives, our future and the way that our nation will be perceived for decades. If anyone is bored of what is at stake then they need to get a grip.