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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2022 11:13:36 GMT
Took me a couple of minutes to process. I can't be the only one that confused NZ for a country in the southern hemisphere  As soon as the removal men and women are done at Downing Street, there is so going to be a by-election in Uxbridge, just as Tony Blair and David Cameron, he has an expensive lady to keep after all. He has said he will stay on until next Election as a by-election could result in another loss at the moment. Their earnings as an MP are under scrutiny but Boris was an MP before and had a lot of outside earnings. I see the logic of him making a clean break but with next election under 2.5 years he might hold on to see how tide turns to make sure seat is retained. Also with a young family maybe a year or two as a backbench MP doing the memoirs would suit. I certainly don't see him standing at next election but think a by election may not be as fast coming as some think. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2022 11:24:54 GMT
TBF who had Theresa May as PM when David Cameron stepped down 6 years ago? Teresa was a senior Cabinet minister as Home Secretary TBF but not the favourite when the race started. |
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Jul 14, 2022 11:40:44 GMT
TBF who had Theresa May as PM when David Cameron stepped down 6 years ago? Teresa was a senior Cabinet minister as Home Secretary TBF but not the favourite when the race started. She got over 50% in the first ballot |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2022 11:52:14 GMT
Boris was favourite before he pulled out after Gove stuck the knife in but TM was a cabinet big hitter in one of the great offices of state.
Certainly looks like Penny has the membership backing. The biggest interest might be could Liz Truss's supporters somehow get her into runoff likely against Rishi ?
Suella we assume will go out next and then Tom Tugboat. Kemi may not win this time but is tipped as a future leader. Suella's supporters I'd think would go behind the female candidates on policy issues more. Tom's supporters might gravitate more towards Rishi.
One fun point I noticed was Penny is 49 years old and who was the last woman aged 49 who became Tory leader ?
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Jul 14, 2022 12:01:16 GMT
Boris was favourite before he pulled out after Gove stuck the knife in but TM was a cabinet big hitter in one of the great offices of state. Certainly looks like Penny has the membership backing. The biggest interest might be could Liz Truss's supporters somehow get her into runoff likely against Rishi ? Suella we assume will go out next and then Tom Tugboat. Kemi may not win this time but is tipped as a future leader. Suella's supporters I'd think would go behind the female candidates on policy issues more. Tom's supporters might gravitate more towards Rishi. One fun point I noticed was Penny is 49 years old and who was the last woman aged 49 who became Tory leader ? Yeah but that was a stage when the Conservative Party was a proper party rather than the mess it has become today. Remember saying this at the time that there was no way the party would elect Johnson. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2022 12:24:58 GMT
Yes the more traditional shire type Tories would have taken one look at Boris and said no way. Can anyone remember the late great Baroness Trumpington on Have I Got News For You when Ian Hislop asked her about Boris as PM and she replied "God No!"
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Jul 14, 2022 12:44:57 GMT
Yes the more traditional shire type Tories would have taken one look at Boris and said no way. Can anyone remember the late great Baroness Trumpington on Have I Got News For You when Ian Hislop asked her about Boris as PM and she replied "God No!" Best I could find was odds the day Michael Gove entered 2016 race 8/11 May 7/2 Gove 5/1 Johnson |
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Post by karloscar on Jul 14, 2022 14:03:36 GMT
Sulala is out, thank the Lord! Will her mad voters go for disTruss or Badenough?
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Post by Jon on Jul 14, 2022 14:07:44 GMT
Tugendhat is most likely getting knocked out by tomorrow if he doesn't withdraw.
Quite a big gap between Truss and Mordaunt
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2022 14:26:10 GMT
Cruella and Tugboat both lost votes so I don't know if they got behind Kemi to ensure she stays in. Kemi has been the surprise and will likely get a top cabinet job whoever becomes PM.
There were polls on Peston last night which had Penny ending up top of MP lists when it comes down to last 3.
If Penny does win, I wonder what if any job Rishi gets?
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Post by karloscar on Jul 14, 2022 14:38:38 GMT
It'll be very interesting to see who remains in Cabinet and who'll be headed for the scrapheap. Johnson surrounded himself with mediocrity (if that's not too kind), but there are very few who seem competent let alone talented at the top of the Tory party.
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Post by Jon on Jul 14, 2022 14:39:07 GMT
Cruella and Tugboat both lost votes so I don't know if they got behind Kemi to ensure she stays in. Kemi has been the surprise and will likely get a top cabinet job whoever becomes PM. There were polls on Peston last night which had Penny ending up top of MP lists when it comes down to last 3. If Penny does win, I wonder what if any job Rishi gets? I wouldn't be surprised if Rishi leaves politics after the next election. I find it interesting that all the remaining candidates are under 50, |
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Post by Jon on Jul 14, 2022 14:40:11 GMT
It'll be very interesting to see who remains in Cabinet and who'll be headed for the scrapheap. Johnson surrounded himself with mediocrity (if that's not too kind), but there are very few who seem competent let alone talented at the top of the Tory party. I think Raab and Shapps will remain if Sunak gets in but I imagine a Mordaunt Cabinet will probably try and do a clean slate, |
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Post by mkb on Jul 14, 2022 14:48:14 GMT
It'll be very interesting to see who remains in Cabinet and who'll be headed for the scrapheap. Johnson surrounded himself with mediocrity (if that's not too kind), but there are very few who seem competent let alone talented at the top of the Tory party. I actually rate Gove as a minister. While I might not agreed with some of his positions, he did seem to always master his brief and get on top of long-standing issues that others had ducked. For example, he was making some very positive strides for those with cladding in high-rise buildings when he was ousted. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2022 14:50:01 GMT
People like Ben Wallace who didn't run and is well regarded might stay in Cabinet. I'd think Tom Tugboat might get a position, Kemi will get a promotion.
Interesting about the age, the cabinet has got younger for a party which has been in power for so long. Off the top of my head Boris is the oldest in the Cabinet at 58. Of all the ones standing I think Hunt was about the longest serving MP at 17 years so people do rise quicker and leave high office sooner now than in Maggie/Major/Blair eras.
I'd think the new PM will want the best people they can have in the key jobs and likewie any future Labour Cabinet would be very low on ministerial experience so you might see a few older names coming back in for a couple of years if they get back into power just to give some experience around the table.
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Post by mkb on Jul 14, 2022 15:00:29 GMT
The biggest problem is that Johnson purged many of those with the ability to run a Ministry prior to the last general election.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2022 17:37:40 GMT
The quality of MPs does seem to have declined on both sides of the house ( Some better quality ones have left to become City Mayors or left their party due to idelogical issues).
Someone like Ruth Davidson sprang to mind as a more able politician than lots in the cabinet.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2022 18:51:48 GMT
The quality of MPs does seem to have declined on both sides of the house ( Some better quality ones have left to become City Mayors or left their party due to idelogical issues). Someone like Ruth Davidson sprang to mind as a more able politician than lots in the cabinet. I'll also throw in the Scots Parliament and Welsh Assembly as reasons for dilution of talent in parliament. |
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Post by karloscar on Jul 14, 2022 19:24:11 GMT
The quality of MPs does seem to have declined on both sides of the house ( Some better quality ones have left to become City Mayors or left their party due to idelogical issues). Someone like Ruth Davidson sprang to mind as a more able politician than lots in the cabinet. Baroness Davidson was notoriously lazy when it came to any constituency business, getting a meeting with her was impossible unless it provided a photo opportunity. Very like Bozo and Truss in more ways than she'd ever admit. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2022 9:34:51 GMT
The quality of MPs does seem to have declined on both sides of the house ( Some better quality ones have left to become City Mayors or left their party due to idelogical issues). Someone like Ruth Davidson sprang to mind as a more able politician than lots in the cabinet. Baroness Davidson was notoriously lazy when it came to any constituency business, getting a meeting with her was impossible unless it provided a photo opportunity. Very like Bozo and Truss in more ways than she'd ever admit. There was an interesting article about flavour of the month Penny M saying she had these traits too. Bookies have now pushed Rishi down to 3rd favourite behind PM and Liz Truss. |
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Jul 15, 2022 13:23:30 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2022 15:31:20 GMT
I don't think Kier has the drive to get us back in the EU as a priority, another referendum would be devisive and the Labour left want us in the EU as much as the Tory Right so he wants to keep his party hardliners onside. Kier clearly is a clever guy and saw the 2016 light.
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Post by Jan on Jul 15, 2022 17:27:34 GMT
Baroness Davidson was notoriously lazy when it came to any constituency business, getting a meeting with her was impossible unless it provided a photo opportunity. Very like Bozo and Truss in more ways than she'd ever admit. There was an interesting article about flavour of the month Penny M saying she had these traits too. Bookies have now pushed Rishi down to 3rd favourite behind PM and Liz Truss. Yeah I don't really get Mordaunt at all, she's just a female version of Boris - good fun, amusing, lazy, no grasp of details, no coherent policies, fired from several previous jobs for being useless, and economical with the truth. Why would people want that again ? |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2022 17:39:47 GMT
I agree the more elegant female version of Boris does spring to mind. But Boris won an election so Tory faithful might think PM can do the same?
Kemi it has come too soon for. Rishi has this non-dom status plus the lockdown breach fine hanging over him, Liz Truss is she a bit too prim and mousey for my liking.
Economical with the truth - one of the greatest quotes ever. Pity Sir Humphrey hadn't said that.
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Post by BurlyBeaR on Jul 15, 2022 17:49:57 GMT
The iain Dale interview with Kemi Badenoch was interesting, especially as he didn’t ask her any questions about her opinions on LGBTQ matters. But that’s Iain for you, total hypocrite slobbering over the idea of a new Thatcher or Widdecombe despite the fact that they fundamentally disagree with his (and his husband’s) life choices. He is such a pompous, self serving creep.
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