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Post by basdfg on Jul 17, 2020 10:05:07 GMT
I can't see any adjustment to the figures would be hugely significant. If you look at the graphs of daily new cases and daily deaths they follow very similar curves, with a rapid rise to a peak and then a slow fall back towards zero, which is exactly the pattern you see in other countries such as Italy, Spain, Germany and France and suggests that death rates are being calculated fairly accurately everywhere. My guess is they will push it down to only those who tested positive before dying within a week - might remove a few thousand. |
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Post by basdfg on Jul 17, 2020 10:12:30 GMT
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Post by basdfg on Jul 17, 2020 10:14:56 GMT
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Post by basdfg on Jul 17, 2020 10:15:29 GMT
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Post by basdfg on Jul 17, 2020 10:19:15 GMT
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Post by basdfg on Jul 17, 2020 10:20:18 GMT
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Post by basdfg on Jul 17, 2020 10:23:55 GMT
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Post by basdfg on Jul 17, 2020 10:29:06 GMT
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Post by basdfg on Jul 17, 2020 10:30:03 GMT
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Post by talkingheads on Jul 17, 2020 10:37:30 GMT
What is all this waffle? Why are stadium audiences suddenly OK? Total normality from November? I know he's a populist but that's taking the p.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2020 11:15:27 GMT
With people being able to attend outdoor events then sports would have been clamouring to get people back in. What is the difference between an outdoor concert and say going to a race meeting, golf, football, cricket etc.
My main concern here would be more people travelling to and from and crowding on public transport leaving. If people can drive to the location it lestens this. But football grounds don't have great parking. Other sports may be better.
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Post by vdcni on Jul 17, 2020 11:47:35 GMT
And then there's the problem with where some of these venues are situated. I live in Twickenham and the average resident is barely tolerant of the rugby crowds at the best of times.
The trains and all the pubs are heaving when the rugby is on.
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Post by kathryn on Jul 17, 2020 11:58:03 GMT
Yes let's not try and rewrite history, it was only a few months ago after all. A lot of venues were left in limbo financially with the government advising them to close but not ordering them. Many companies, particularly in London where it was known the situation was more serious at that point, ignored the governments dithering and closed down ahead of advice. Yes, theatres ended up closing voluntarily because it was clear that it would be irresponsible to stay open, and then discovered they couldn't claim on their insurance because they closed before they were officially ordered to. |
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Post by theatremadness on Jul 17, 2020 11:58:39 GMT
If you are living alone or are a single parent with children under 18, you can form a bubble with one other household and you do not have to social distance from them. |
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Post by kathryn on Jul 17, 2020 12:07:45 GMT
What is all this waffle? Why are stadium audiences suddenly OK? Total normality from November? I know he's a populist but that's taking the p. Given that most stadium events have pre-emptively cancelled up to the end of the year, I'm not sure it'll make any difference. I had a concert at the O2 in December moved to November 2021 - very understandably, as people were clamouring to be able to get their money back and they couldn't offer that until new dates were set. Plus they needed the certainty for financial and logistics planning, of course. And we still don't know what will happen in the autumn - with all the rules relaxed and the usual coughs and colds circulating self-isolation will make a comeback every time someone catches a cold, unless testing is much easier to access and results are a lot swifter. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2020 12:08:01 GMT
I can't see any adjustment to the figures would be hugely significant. If you look at the graphs of daily new cases and daily deaths they follow very similar curves, with a rapid rise to a peak and then a slow fall back towards zero, which is exactly the pattern you see in other countries such as Italy, Spain, Germany and France and suggests that death rates are being calculated fairly accurately everywhere. The excess death rate is the one that is most trustworthy. The late admittance of asymptomatic transmission and death has led to numbers being undercounted. |
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Post by kathryn on Jul 17, 2020 12:12:05 GMT
They're trying to draw a distinction between the number who died because of the virus and the number who had it, but died of something else.
Which is kind of ridiculous - after all, we know there's a long tail of health problems following the initial few weeks. We can't yet be sure that surviving that initial crisis doesn't mean some people won't die because of one of those lingering complications caused by the virus.
Then there's the effect on health services that meant a lot of people have died who might otherwise have not, even if they didn't test positive for Covid-19.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2020 12:12:34 GMT
Yes let's not try and rewrite history, it was only a few months ago after all. A lot of venues were left in limbo financially with the government advising them to close but not ordering them. Many companies, particularly in London where it was known the situation was more serious at that point, ignored the governments dithering and closed down ahead of advice. Yes, theatres ended up closing voluntarily because it was clear that it would be irresponsible to stay open, and then discovered they couldn't claim on their insurance because they closed before they were officially ordered to. They should have stayed open but told the audience they were going to add a safety surcharge of £1000 if they turned up, either they paid that or get a refund. |
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Post by Mark on Jul 17, 2020 12:16:41 GMT
I'm in Hong Kong currently. Everyone is wearing a mask, even in the street. Public transport busy as normal, streets are full, restaurants busy in the day (max group size of 4). Currently, everything like bars/restaurants are closing after 6pm to try and slow the spread.
British people just don't have the discipline to wear masks. I don't think people get that keeping it round your chin does nothing.
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Post by sf on Jul 17, 2020 12:31:19 GMT
British people just don't have the discipline to wear masks. I don't think people get that keeping it round your chin does nothing. That's partly it, but it's also a significant issue that far too many people are too inherently selfish to bother with a measure that is less about protecting themselves than about protecting other people. |
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Post by basdfg on Jul 17, 2020 18:58:50 GMT
I can't see any adjustment to the figures would be hugely significant. If you look at the graphs of daily new cases and daily deaths they follow very similar curves, with a rapid rise to a peak and then a slow fall back towards zero, which is exactly the pattern you see in other countries such as Italy, Spain, Germany and France and suggests that death rates are being calculated fairly accurately everywhere. The excess death rate is the one that is most trustworthy. The late admittance of asymptomatic transmission and death has led to numbers being undercounted. I had to return to post that the telegraph is now telling everyone its PHE deliberately over-counting to create fear. The goverment is going to get the blame for ecnomic damage put on PHE as well at this rat. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2020 19:30:39 GMT
The excess death rate is the one that is most trustworthy. The late admittance of asymptomatic transmission and death has led to numbers being undercounted. I had to return to post that the telegraph is now telling everyone its PHE deliberately over-counting to create fear. The goverment is going to get the blame for ecnomic damage put on PHE as well at this rat. The telegraph says ( link): "It is astonishing: under these terms, a person who tested positive a few months ago but then gets hit by a bus this week would be recorded as a Covid death. In fact, if left unchanged, every single one of the 292,500 people who have tested positive will some day be a Covid-19 death statistic – even if they live for decades and die of completely unrelated causes." That comment seems borderline unhinged to me. As we've learnt more about this disease it's become clear that it's not a simple respiratory infection and can lead to long-lasting issues with multiple organ failures. I was reading an article just the other day reporting that an increased rate of heart irregularities was observed in patients who had superficially appeared to have completely recovered from Covid-19, so there's a chance it may actually be more accurate to assume that there's no hard cut-off after which you are completely recovered. And is the writer really suggesting that someone turns up at the morgue with tyre tracks all over them and someone says "Yep, that looks like Covid-19 to me"? ETA: I wonder how they explain the excess deaths figures for the season, which are considerably higher than the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19. If PHE are faking the figures to make the pandemic look worse than it really is they're doing a pretty poor job of it because they've missed out nearly 20,000 they could have added. But who wants to think about facts when you have a conspiracy theory to promote? |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2020 20:06:52 GMT
British people just don't have the discipline to wear masks. I don't think people get that keeping it round your chin does nothing. That's partly it, but it's also a significant issue that far too many people are too inherently selfish to bother with a measure that is less about protecting themselves than about protecting other people. The original narrative was that it protected you going back as far as when Jacko wore his. Also they were wore in China due to polution and the Cantonese students in particular wore them in the UK. During the pandemic the narrative changed that you wore one more to protect others. But why not say this back in April and May and enforce their wearing then. It would surely have driven the numbers down quicker. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2020 2:04:01 GMT
I had to return to post that the telegraph is now telling everyone its PHE deliberately over-counting to create fear. The goverment is going to get the blame for ecnomic damage put on PHE as well at this rat. Snip ETA: I wonder how they explain the excess deaths figures for the season, which are considerably higher than the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19. If PHE are faking the figures to make the pandemic look worse than it really is they're doing a pretty poor job of it because they've missed out nearly 20,000 they could have added. But who wants to think about facts when you have a conspiracy theory to promote? I got one of the twitter loons replying to me with an ‘explanation’. Apparently they died because the NHS ‘only accepted covid patients’, secretive ‘do not resuscitate orders’ and aggressive intubation. I made the mistake of commenting on a PHE post, it appears to be where the dregs of society go to congregate. Back to the comfort of actual scientists for me after that jaw dropping foray. |
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Post by kathryn on Jul 18, 2020 9:56:33 GMT
That's partly it, but it's also a significant issue that far too many people are too inherently selfish to bother with a measure that is less about protecting themselves than about protecting other people. The original narrative was that it protected you going back as far as when Jacko wore his. Also they were wore in China due to polution and the Cantonese students in particular wore them in the UK. During the pandemic the narrative changed that you wore one more to protect others. But why not say this back in April and May and enforce their wearing then. It would surely have driven the numbers down quicker. Yeah, but Wacko Jacko probably isn’t a role model to follow, considering that he appeared to tape the end of his nose on due to all plastic surgery he had. It’s to do with the size of the particles they block. Pollution masks are effective at filtering at least some of the larger pollutant particles, which are visible to the naked eye. Viruses are smaller. People who do not normally wear masks tend not to wear them correctly, particularly in the absence of visible particles. I’ve seen people out and about wearing masks over their mouth but not their nose, I’ve seen people pull them down to talk, I’ve seen people fiddling with them because they find them uncomfortable. All of which renders them much less effective. You don’t do that when you’re wearing a mask to block smoke, dust or pollution you can see in the air. Medical-standard masks worn properly obviously do work to protect both wearer and patient. Given the severe shortage of PPE at the start of the pandemic, masks were discouraged among the general public to preserve supplies for medical staff who would use them properly and needed them most. |
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