How will theatre function when the lockdown ends?

We are in a situation not seen since the time of Shakespeare and the plague closures and as then Theatre continued and people got on with their lives and the new normal even though there was a Civil War and Theatre closures not long after, but that is another story and one for historians to muse upon.

To plan you need a few firm assumptions the most important being when is it safe to open and once open the confidence to invest. Using the War terminology used too often in my opinion, a war ends on a specific date a contagion does not.

At the moment we are being prepared for a protracted loosening and tightening of restrictions as cases increase or decrease and this will continue until enough of the population have immunity through affliction or vaccination.

(An aside the Government is still likely supporting herd immunity, a lot of the businesses still open and especially construction and the gig economy employ primarily young healthy low risk workers who if become infected will recover and the risk of these people infecting the at risk population reduced by identifying those at high risk and ordering them to self-isolate through fear with targeted individual letters unlike the generic one most of us received and also the focus on an antibody test to confirm immunity over vaccination)

A vaccine even if developed in 6 months will take a long time to manufacture, distribute and administering and the nationalistic protection as per PPE will be much worse so vaccination is in reality a distant hope.

Therefore the biggest hurdle is the uncertainty of how long before the next closure and therefore the willingness to risk capital.

As above I expect for the first 18 months or so we will see simple low cost bankable productions which can recoup their costs quickly.

Expect lean, cheap and adaptable productions of the ‘favourites’ which favour the smaller Theatres to predominate initially.

On vaccines, yes there is a lag between trials and approval of that vaccine, the five years is the time of that happening, when a limited number of people (those who volunteer or, in extremis, those at the most serious risk) will be given it.

I think we are at cross purposes on the other point, you are right in that theatre will exist and just adapt itself to the new reality. My point is that existing organisations and, in a number of cases, existing buildings will cease to be a part of that. It’s simple economics, that many of these will now fail. Then there will be a gap in the market and others, and indeed the same people as well, will rush to fill that gap. It provides a great opportunity as well, in that what existed can now be adapted to the new reality. The ones who fail will do what they did before, the ones that succeed will adapt. At the small theatre company end this happens all the time anyway. Short lives, moving on, It’s not difficult to see that spreading to larger concerns. Places like the NT, RSC, they’re going to be fine. The economic situation expected to occur now points to many businesses failing and theatre will be no exception to that. Theatre will survive, but theatres and companies will not. 

Yes, big shows with long lead times are too much of a risk when there is a high possibility of the same restrictions needing to happen again for the next wave (maybe in Autumn but this virus doesn’t appear to be very seasonal). 

On your aside, very much so. I would suggest that many others, apart from those who are being shielded, are at significantly increased risk and need to be told that. Those with diabetes and/or hypertension, for example, need to avoid contact as much as possible.  Being male and being over fifty is also a bigger risk than being twenty and female. Put most of those together and that’s me(!), so wild horses aren’t going to drag me into any dangerous situation, like a theatre, until we have a vaccine that works. So young people carry on, we’ll be back with you at some point.

As soon as the deaths are heavily reduced whether it be due to a vaccine, herd immunity or treatment drugs (so in two years max), I will go to New York.  

I have no idea whether prices for flights and theatre tickets will go up or down (and frankly, none of us actually know yet) but either way I've had refunds from various things I'd already booked for and am sitting at home spending very little money for the forseeable future, so I see no reason why I wouldn't be able to afford it. I will happily spend more than I would have previously to do something I love and that - by that point - I'll have been deprived of for a significant amount of time. 

All I see on social media are people talking about how they miss going to the cinema, going out to eat, travelling etc. and that they can't wait to do it again. So I don't think I'm alone in this either.

I understand that for most, if not all of us, this is the most life-changing wide-scale thing to happen in our lifetimes. But honestly, that just goes to show how sheltered we've been. Natural disasters, wars, invasion, genocide and yes, plagues have always been around. And theatre, having been around for over 2000 years, has seen it all already. The last time there was a pandemic of this scale, World War I was literally happening at the same time. And yet, life did eventually return to normal and it didn't take decades either. We're more equipped to deal with these things than we ever have been. Nothing has been changed permanently. There are recessions almost every decade. We deal with it, we recover, we return to normal and then we deal with the next one. 

I agree, this idea that nobody will go travelling or go on holiday for a long time is just doom mongering.

How will theatre function - differently!

Lockdown being lifted, and that's most likely another 9 weeks away, is just the beginning of the end as we are likely to see rolling lockdowns for specific geographical locations and people who are at risk over the next 18 months or so as infections flare up from time to time until we either have a vaccine or herd immunity.

Now theatre may be able to reopen but producers etc are going to have to be careful about the productions they put on, expect to see a lot of one hander or two performer plays and stripped back musicals, no overseas talent (just in case they get stuck in the UK), plenty of new writing about life in isolation and in all likelihood no actor over the age of 70 or any actor with an underlying health condition (and remember that includes asthma and diabetes) in any cast as the insurance will be astronomical.

We're probably a good 5 years from theatre being back to what it was in January this year.

Not Doom mongering but the truth.

I would hope that the new works that are “dead certs” would go ahead. It would be a tragedy if Life of Pi never saw the light of day again and I do think that’s a dead cert.

Maybe a resumption of the interrupted Educating Rita tour? That must have a similarly small cast and I could certainly feel more enthusiastic about that than other suggestions, popular as they may be with some and admitting that they certainly tick the "small cast" box. I'm on record as saying I can't warm to plays with only a few characters, so I may have to wait a while for my fix - unless something cheerful and uplifting is on offer, in which case I'd probably jump at the chance.