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Post by theatremadness on Jun 10, 2017 12:39:41 GMT
Pretty brilliant that the Daily Mail now have a Labour MP as their constituency leader.
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Post by samuelwhiskers on Jun 10, 2017 12:44:40 GMT
Not enough to make a difference?? Oh it is just starting I think.
I was hearing rumours of a majority of 60 from HQ at 9pm. Pretty down really after all that work and not the answer I was getting on the ground. Was going to pack up and have an early night sleep.
Then Bullingdon Boy announces the exit poll at 10pm and it is grab another beer. Strap in here. This is going to be a bumpy ride. A nights sleep missed on adrenaline and plenty of coffee today.
It's a beautiful evening after, I have baby gold finches and baby robins in the garden. And life is good.
Besides, a good election to lose this one...
It's a beautiful evening because Labour lost an election and will be on the opposition benches again? The Conservatives are the Government and with the DUP will be able to go at least another 2-3 years without needing to call another General Election as long as the deal which emerges stands firm. If you think the Conservatives will run a campaign as bad as this one next time around I believe you are deluding yourself. There's almost no chance the coalition will stand for 2-3 years. We have an unelected religious extremist far right wing fringe party who received 1.5% of the votes essentially running the country on the say of an unelected PM who has run what is universally acknowledged to be one of the worst election campaigns in history, in an entirely unnecessary vanity election. The coalition will struggle to get any laws passed against such opposition. There will certainly be massive pressure on May to resign. It's highly unlikely May will remain in power much longer, and the coalition is highly unstable. The most realistic option is May's resignation, a new PM (maybe Boris?) and a strong possibility of another election in October. Will they be able to run a better campaign in a matter of months following such a disastrous pasting, while neck-deep with the loathed and feared DUP and in the middle of constant internal fighting and strife? Yes (they could hardly be worse) but will it be a decent campaign? May has zero chance of winning another election, could Boris? Labour certainly will be able to run a more successful campaign going from their gains and the current momentum and popularity, and by using what they learned from this campaign which after all was thrown at them without warning.
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2,452 posts
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Post by theatremadness on Jun 10, 2017 12:51:55 GMT
A friend did some (very, very rough) calculations and divided the 650 seats based on the parties actual vote share. He says some fractions have rounded up and down to get whole seats and there are still some spare so it's not wholly accurate, but it's a more accurate representation of the country than what FPTP seems to be:
Conservative - 276 Labour - 260 Liberal Democrats - 48 SNP - 20 UKIP - 12 Green - 10 DUP - 6 Sinn Fein - 5 Plaid Cymru - 3 Social Democratic & Labour Party - 2 Ulster Unionist Party - 2 Alliance Party - 1
Is the above sufficient evidence to want to change our voting system or would it complicate matters further?
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Post by d'James on Jun 10, 2017 12:56:00 GMT
Tories looking more and more out of touch, especially TM. The best thing she could do is step down immediately. Ruth Davidson is their only hope for the future in my opinion. I would agree with that but I don't think she wants to be an MP.
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2,342 posts
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Jun 10, 2017 13:36:17 GMT
Not enough to make a difference?? Oh it is just starting I think.
I was hearing rumours of a majority of 60 from HQ at 9pm. Pretty down really after all that work and not the answer I was getting on the ground. Was going to pack up and have an early night sleep.
Then Bullingdon Boy announces the exit poll at 10pm and it is grab another beer. Strap in here. This is going to be a bumpy ride. A nights sleep missed on adrenaline and plenty of coffee today.
It's a beautiful evening after, I have baby gold finches and baby robins in the garden. And life is good.
Besides, a good election to lose this one...
Interested. I responded to your comment oh he wasn't a loser. Youve responded telling me why he wasn't but then ended your post with a comment that it was a good election to lose??? Which is it? Did you see my post on the previous page? I'm not typing all that again.
Took an hour to write, if that doesn't explain the context to the comment please do ask again.
Don't think anyone would like to go in to an election to lose, you would need to be a pretty strange cat to do that. And I certainly didn't invest time and effort to do that.
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2,342 posts
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Jun 10, 2017 13:38:57 GMT
Well, I'm obviously thick so could you spell it out please? RIP Blairism. Ta ra kidda. Goodbye tory light blue Labour.
All I have seen on the news in the last 24 hours is ummuna, straw, alexander, balls. Alistair bloody Campbell on QT.
Called that one a bit early. Watch your backs Corbynistas
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2017 14:00:57 GMT
Though I'm not a citizen here and cannot vote I'm vicariously thrilled that my district, Kensington, went for Labour after 3 recounts - by 20 votes! See, not everyone's posh in Kensington. They all own property of high value and were voting against the Tory manifesto pledge to impose a dementia tax on the sale of the property of the deceased who received social care at home.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2017 14:29:59 GMT
I doubt another election
Will be anytime soon
Will piss people off
3 votings within 18 months
And in the middle of brexit negotiations
Is also quite bad
And I don't think MPs have the energy for it
In fact I know they don't
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2017 14:35:18 GMT
I also think it's quite good
May has not sh*t her pants
And is willing to stay
To at least try and sort out the mess
Unlike Cameron
Who called a vote
And then left when it didn't go his way
To have no leader at all
Would make us precariously unstable
In the view of the world
We already look stupid internationally as a nation
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2017 14:49:06 GMT
It is out of their hands, a couple of MPs die off (and they tend to be older) and it's over. Or, as the liberal wing are up in arms against a DUP link, anyone of Soubry, Vaizey, Morgan and many others could follow their conscience and just withhold support.
As for Brexit, likelihood is that it may well be the catalyst in the first place for another election.
Since 2010 there hasn't been an election where a majority large enough for contentious legislation has been gained. Given that may well be the case again, for Brexit we are left with the choice of a National Government as per the thirties (highly unlikely), unstable governmemt pushing a deal through (likely but electoral suicide and liable to be dismissed at a subsequent election) or an all party committee set up to negotiate Brexit (messy, likely impossible to organise and maintain in order to get a mutually acceptable conclusion).
There is no good option because there is no mutually acceptable Brexit. I really have no clue as to how we get out of this mess.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2017 14:57:41 GMT
I can, however, suggest what we could do if we had a time machine - that is, to do homework on the nature of referendums and set rules which make any result stick.
1) a super majority rather than a simple majority needed, to avoid minor shifts in opinion overturning any original decision. 2) a question that stipulated a replacement rather than leaving some open ended rainbow of possibilities. 3) a proviso that any negotiated deal needed a second referendum.
Cameron did a number of good things but a lack of clarity on this was a derogation of responsibility.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2017 15:13:25 GMT
First, the Prime Minister decided to call an election when she heard voices as she walked in Welsh hills.
Then, the Cabinet approved this u-turn.
Finally, the vast majority of the UK Parliament agreed to it, overturning the Fixed Term Act.
They all share responsibility for the present situation.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2017 15:19:28 GMT
There is no good option because there is no mutually acceptable Brexit. I really have no clue as to how we get out of this mess. It's really not a problem. The EU is ready for the negotiations, with agreement amongst its member states. Essentially, the UK will have two choices - either to accept the EU proposals (Deal) or to walk away (No Deal). Perhaps we could send Noel Edmonds or The Banker to sort this out?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2017 15:27:49 GMT
Nick Timothy has a very Russian appearance with that beard. I wonder if he was a Russian mole, diligently working away to destabilise the UK?
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4,033 posts
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Post by Dawnstar on Jun 10, 2017 15:43:03 GMT
See, not everyone's posh in Kensington. Actually, I had no idea the area had changed quite much... Is it the area that has changed? It seems to me more that the voting patterns of the classes has changed, with the urban upper-middle class now more likely to vote Laobour while the working class are more likely to vote Conservative than in the past.
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Post by anthony40 on Jun 10, 2017 15:52:44 GMT
You know, I don't really follow politics but ever since the confirmation of Brexit, from an internatioal point of view, this is embarrassing!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2017 15:53:03 GMT
Actually, I had no idea the area had changed quite much... Is it the area that has changed? It seems to me more that the voting patterns of the classes has changed, with the urban upper-middle class now more likely to vote Laobour while the working class are more likely to vote Conservative than in the past. Figures support that, B and C1 shifting to labour, C2 and D to conservative. The former lay blame on poor government and the economy whilst the latter blame elites and immigrants taking their jobs. Hence rundown Northern areas swung conservative whilst all across the south and major urban areas swung to labour.
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Post by Phantom of London on Jun 10, 2017 16:07:20 GMT
But Theresa May has always believed she is free to do all the Brexit negotiations without reference to the UK Parliament, so she can only be thwarted in that by either a vote of no confidence or a Tory Party leadership coup. I agree that all the UK Parliament legislation will be chaotic, but she doesn't have any plans for much Parliamentary business anyway. It's all about doing Brexit her way without consulting anyone, or at least attempting to do that before being shafted by the EU. She thought a submarine tactic, that worked in the referendum so well, would work in the election, except she disappeared without a trace do never reemergence. How can you govern with a majority of 2? How do you organise an effective whip to enact law, the backbenchers now smell blood - but no one will stab Theresa May in the back, they will stab her fatally in the front just like Thatcher. I Have a feeling they won't be teaching Brexit in these new Grammar Schools in 10 years time. Though I'm not a citizen here and cannot vote I'm vicariously thrilled that my district, Kensington, went for Labour after 3 recounts - by 20 votes! See, not everyone's posh in Kensington. Kensington once the safest Tory seat in the whole country. Nick Timothy has a very Russian appearance with that beard. I wonder if he was a Russian mole, diligently working away to destabilise the UK? Fiona, Nick and the Great Comets of 2017.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2017 16:31:13 GMT
The young people
Who voted for labour
Because they think they are going to get free school meals
And not pay tuition fees
Will have found something else to engage in
Soon
They just follow the trend
These policies are small distractions
Carrots on a stick
Sweets
And have no actual beneficial economic impact for the country
I would also be interested to know
How labour plan to continue their policies in the long term
Over decades
As the current youth generation will have
No savings
No property
No assets
When they are older
Who will labour steal from then?
Not thought out
You can only squeeze the middle classes so much
Yet not one government has dared challenge society
To a different way of thinking
Save not spend
Buy not rent
Have fewer children perhaps
Abuse the NHS a little less
But people refuse to take any personal blame for issues
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2017 16:43:39 GMT
Our last labour government
Told us one of the biggest lies ever
And many people died
As a result
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2017 16:50:39 GMT
That would shrink the economy, leading to lower tax revenues and more unemployment so increased public spending.
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Post by easilypleased on Jun 10, 2017 16:59:42 GMT
Someone please correct me if I have the details wrong, but Labour proposed an additional 5& income tax on earnings above the first £80,000 per year. That's a marginal increase for the 5% of taxpayers who can most easily afford it. Someone who earns £150k a year would pay £4850 a year more in tax. But your presumption is that such people can easily afford it because they have lots of spare income and that's often not the case. Big mortgage, school fees (to have 20% VAT added), etc etc - over £400 a month is a lot and amounts to a couple of theatre visits for 2. These people are your premium seat theatre goers who probably subsidise a lot of the rest. If they have to cut back, then theatre trips will be among the first things to go. They aren't going to take their kids out of school or move house so they can carry on going to the theatre. It can only have a negative impact. Not saying it's right or wrong, or condoning people's lifestyles, just saying.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2017 17:02:10 GMT
That would shrink the economy, leading to lower tax revenues and more unemployment so increased public spending. Fine Spend money you have earned As opposed to borrowed or on credit then In any case People are sick of austerity Yet the only way to resolve it Is increase their salary And then take more tax off them In any case public sector workers And PAYE workers are always shat on By our system And suffer the most They are easy and rich pickings to take money from Those at the top manipulate their wealth at will And get away with all sorts of tricks Corruption continues unchecked and unchallenged
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Post by Phantom of London on Jun 10, 2017 17:24:58 GMT
Someone please correct me if I have the details wrong, but Labour proposed an additional 5& income tax on earnings above the first £80,000 per year. That's a marginal increase for the 5% of taxpayers who can most easily afford it. Someone who earns £150k a year would pay £4850 a year more in tax. But your presumption is that such people can easily afford it because they have lots of spare income and that's often not the case. Big mortgage, school fees (to have 20% VAT added), etc etc - over £400 a month is a lot and amounts to a couple of theatre visits for 2. These people are your premium seat theatre goers who probably subsidise a lot of the rest. If they have to cut back, then theatre trips will be among the first things to go. They aren't going to take their kids out of school or move house so they can carry on going to the theatre. It can only have a negative impact. Not saying it's right or wrong, or condoning people's lifestyles, just saying. Thought the biggest theatre goers don't actually speak English.
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Post by theatremadness on Jun 10, 2017 19:34:02 GMT
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