Brexit

For many years the SNP were a right wing party, and until fairly recently were proposing Scotland becomes a low tax state, or at least following the lead of the Republic of Ireland in giving tax breaks to the multi-nationals. It was only when they realised they needed to win votes from Labour that they shifted emphasis to social justice. But it was still based on the idea of not wanting to share the oil money with the rest of the UK.

Now there's no tax revenue from oil, and Scotland would miss out on additional spend equivalent to the budget for the NHS in Scotland, and the idea of a left-wing Scexit to benefit the poor is less realistic than the imagined left-wing Brexit. It's all very well for the wealthy ideological nationalists to claim they are OK with a 'minor' reduction in wealth in exchange for 'sovereignty', but I think even most of them underestimate the immediate reduction in budget that would come with the end of Barnett, never mind the hit on the economy, or what happens when the disaster capitalists get involved. 

At present (pre COVID), the Scottish budget is running on a deficit of about 8% which is sustainable within the UK, but not as an independent state. The EU would require it to be no more than 3% so not only would it take years to be eligible to join, it would only happen after years of austerity that would make the last decade seem like a time of plenty. It's not just a case of cutting services or raising taxes, or dreaming of record breaking growth, to bring the deficit down. Then there's the question of currency, and while it's possible to keep using the pound, using another country's currency means less control over fiscal policy. Establishing a new currency is very, very expensive, and any country without an established currency, or healthy economy can only borrow on much higher interest rates, which adds to the expense. Then, like Brexit, there's the hit on the economy from creating new barriers with your main trading partners. Hoping that increased exports to non-UK countries will make up for it, is akin to the Tories announcing they're working on a great new deal with Australia.

That said, Brexit was a terrible idea that will make us poorer and people voted for it, so logic doesn't always get a look in when people have convinced themselves of their own national superiority, and have believed politicians who have spent years blaming Brussels/Westminster for their own failings.

Ironically, so much of the Brexit campaign used the messaging of the 2014 nationalist one. No voters were called anti-Scottish, and any question about ensuring public services would function properly were batted away with claims of fear mongering. Healthy scepticism was labelled as cowardice and so on. Any problems could be eliminated if only people were more positive. And if you thought banging on about WW2 was cringe-worthy, we had references to Bannockburn, which was exactly 700 years earlier. 

In short, the SNP try to be all things to all people. They try to win votes from Labour voters by claiming left-leaning credentials, which are not compatible with their nationalist agenda. Then they claim green credentials, which was at odds with their assumption of record North Sea oil extraction which was to fund their nationalist agenda. They were cutting council tax, a very Tory policy, while framing it as a tax cut to help the poor!

Already the SNP have been sneaking in cuts to council budgets that were well in excess of the cuts from Westminster during austerity. They just blamed those cuts on Westminster, and used it as a reason to become independent. The spare money being spent on SNP vanity projects, and pay rises for the growing number of SNP ministers in the Scottish Government. In case you didn't know, Sturgeon's salary as First Minister is higher than Boris Johnson as PM, which is higher than Mark Drakeford as the First Minister of Wales. Second jobs come into play here - I'm not feeling sorry for Johnson here, but while Gordon Brown was giving the British PM a pay cut, the SNP were organising pay increases for Scottish Government ministers and justifying it as patriotic.

Does Brexit make people poorer in Scotland but Independence and if Scotland is able to join join the EU make them a little richer than a UK Brexit Scotland? 

www.gov.uk/government/publications/letter-to-medicines-and-medical-products-suppliers-3-august-2020/letter-to-medicine-suppliers-3-august-2020


With the precedent of the stockpiling COVID PPE would have thought they would have got this request out earlier, leaving this a bit late as lead times are usually 3 to 6 months in the Pharmaceutical / Medical Devices sectors.

4 months is not a long time to build 6 weeks worth of stock and orders would ideally need to have been placed or agreements to supply in place by now.

Confidence in getting a Deal must be receding and the the additional pressure on our Pharmaceutical / Medical Device Companies as we sleepwalk to a potential second wave is just what we need.

What on Earth are they playing at?!

This can hardly have come as a surprise - the lawyers would have told them before they signed the WA exactly what it meant. Why decide that it’s such a problem that they need to break international law and tank our international reputation now?!

Was Boris simply not paying attention to the legal advice last year?

Surely the PLAN can’t have been to sign it, ratify it, run an election campaign on it, and then say ‘actually we were crossing our fingers behind our back’.

At least two of the ERG stated ages ago that the only way Johnson had been able to get them to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement was by promising them he would break it; so really the only surprising thing about this is the open admission of the intention to do so, and to break international law in the process. My guess would be the plan is to provoke a no-deal response from the EU, so they can be blamed for the ultimate failure to exit the transition period with an agreed deal. As for the implications for our international reputation, I have no difficulty believing this is something Johnson won't have thought about, and Cummings doesn't care about.

It’s the inevitable endgame of a decadent politics that has the avoidance of responsibility at its heart. Blame is always somewhere else (why scapegoating and demonisation of ‘the other’ are often bedfellows). Populism is its dying spasm, where grievance takes the place of policy. When nothing matters, anything goes. 

Yes, I've found it's a fairly good rule of thumb with this government, when the question arises "Why are they doing this?" to replace it with the question "How does this allow them to blame somebody else?"

On the plus side at least we can all still go grouse shooting/hunting with more than 6 of our mates x

So very soon we could be on our own with our much hailed sovereignty and foreign made blue passports to cherish.

Looking at the pics of lorry drivers having a squirmish with the police is this a sign of things to come? I guess the situation has tested BJ's no deal planning and oh dear!

Getting loads of messages trade deal is done. Nothing in the news.... yet. Anyone else?

Also seeing these rumours.

The Coronavirus press conference is particularly bleak, if you were going to capitulate on a Trade Deal this would be a good time, attention will be focussing elsewhere, a long and slow transition period for fishing and the level playing field will include a way for the EU to limit trade if we digress too far but it will have been our decision as we are Sovereign.