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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Sept 8, 2020 12:35:26 GMT
Saying that no masks should be worn in schools was one massive government indication that teens are safe. Many other countries have done the opposite, this was a deliberate message being sent. Twenty-somethings less of an excuse bur, even then, the message has been that you will not have a serious version of the disease. The panicked ‘don’t kill Granny’ rhetoric we now see wouldn’t be necessary if that message had been conveyed more calmly by policy and actions to police that policy earlier.
The problem flows from government. They have abdicated responsibility so that they can blame others instead.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Sept 8, 2020 11:01:25 GMT
So many contradictory signals have put us in a worse position now than necessary. Keeping an ‘acceptable’ level of 1000 infections a day being, maybe the worst, as it meant having no accurate and functioning track, trace and isolate system. The trade off of freedom and responsibility has also been unbalanced, so many can slip through the net and/or deliberately ignore unpoliced guidelines.
One important thing - young people are not to blame. They have been told they are not at risk, they have seen pubs open, schools open with few safety measures. How are we supposed to expect safe behaviour if the places they are, are (at least in the case of schools, though universities we have yet to see) given laxer guidelines?
The infection rate is high among 10-30 year olds in France, who have published figures, Yesterday Hancock suggested that the high point here is sixth form/university age, radiating out younger and older. So that message that ‘schools will be last to close’ is a massive unnecessary hostage to fortune. Are the government really going to be able to hold the two contradictory ideas together? Young people share the same places as older people, they clearly are transmitting it just as effectively, how do you stop it radiating out further to ages who are at real risk of severe illness?
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 27, 2020 9:32:51 GMT
Several teachers I know say that teacher assessed grades are likely to be higher than those achieved. I am frankly getting fed up of the fuss made of this issue. What did everyone think would happen with a year when no exams were sit? It was never going to be a straight forward situation to resolve and the fact that the final grades awarded were the highest in 13 years in the top grades show that students were probably given higher grades than would have been achieved by exams. I do sympathise with those who were doing resits and so had no teacher to assess their grade but for the vast majority they have come out with better than they would have got. This was born out by the jubilant scenes when the GCSE results were published. Exam results should be slightly higher this year though. That is correct no? The difference comes in as assessed grades are reflecting the ability of a student without any possible issues. In reality there are some who make uncharacteristic errors, crumble under pressure and so on. It wouldn’t be fair to assign that effect to random students, so assessed grades reflect their ability without those pressures. It brings into question the nature of examinations as a means of assessment, to be honest. Examinations are not assessing ability, they are assessing how students fare in examinations.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 22, 2020 16:49:18 GMT
I hope he’s not basing anything on the headline because it is massively misleading. The study says that talking or singing quietly, as you might in a one on one conversation, is minimal risk. As soon as you project, however, the risk is multiplied massively. In that situation then acting and singing are equal, yes, but equally dangerous. A study out of Boston University has reported their results on this in detail, finding similar results on volume. Both have the limitation that they tested one person at a time though, so scaling up hasn’t been looked at (probably unethical to do so). New guidelines say “However, these studies have indicated that it is the cumulative aerosol transmission from both those performing in and attending events that is likely to create risk. We are continuing to develop more detailed understanding of how to mitigate this potential aggregate risk.“. Its a study the govt did, so I'd hope its not headline based.. The preprint is here if people want to have a look at it - s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/itempdf74155353254prod/12789221/Comparing_the_Respirable_Aerosol_Concentrations_and_Particle_Size_Distributions_Generated_by_Singing__Speaking_and_Breat_v1.pdfThe following is interesting and. maybe, goes some way to explaining the seemingly random distribution of superspreading events. "We also find that a minority of participants emitted substantially more aerosols than others, sometimes more than an order of magnitude above the median, consistent with the long-tail of a log-normal distribution when viewed in linear-concentration space. This observation is consistent with a previous study. However, the highest emitters were not consistently the highest across all activities, suggesting the magnitude of emission from an individual may be highly activity specific. It is unclear why some participants emit substantially more than others, and further studies are required to better characterise the variability of aerosol emission across the population, as well as the consistency of emission from an individual over time."
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 22, 2020 10:49:38 GMT
I hope he’s not basing anything on the headline because it is massively misleading. The study says that talking or singing quietly, as you might in a one on one conversation, is minimal risk. As soon as you project, however, the risk is multiplied massively. In that situation then acting and singing are equal, yes, but equally dangerous. A study out of Boston University has reported their results on this in detail, finding similar results on volume. Both have the limitation that they tested one person at a time though, so scaling up hasn’t been looked at (probably unethical to do so). New guidelines say “However, these studies have indicated that it is the cumulative aerosol transmission from both those performing in and attending events that is likely to create risk. We are continuing to develop more detailed understanding of how to mitigate this potential aggregate risk.“.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 19, 2020 11:26:42 GMT
Screen grabs from two papers this morning. Oh where is our great leader? Not a paper I would go out of my way to read but the Daily Star’s front pages recently have been genuinely clever and caustically funny.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 13, 2020 23:18:24 GMT
Ah yeah I see, as you say I thought you meant total. I’m not doubting that some of those deaths that are now outside 28 days were actually Covid deaths, just in the same way that I can imagine there were some deaths that may have been put down as Covid even though they would have died the same time anyway from something else, they just happened to also have a positive Covid test. Thing is we will never know. The only way we’ll be able to measure is from overall excess deaths in my opinion. I agree, it’s the internationally accepted comparison measure in any case, as it’s less easy to manipulate,
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 13, 2020 21:37:15 GMT
For the latter, as that's easier, cardiovascular effects are a major concern with covid and heart attacks are a manifestation of that, so it's very plausibly covid related if they have a diagnosis. I have these sorts of long term issues but I'm not going to keel over any time soon. If I do, it is pretty certain that covid did it and it's why I'm seen as a high risk. This bus analogy seems to crop up regularly from certain quarters. Would love to know it's provenance, can you link to it please? The odds are much less, obviously, for being knocked over and killed by one but I'm wondering where PHE have coded traffic accidents in that way. Evidence needed, as they say... EDIT: On the difference between 28 days, 60 days and so on, you can see the difference as this site has already adapted to the new methodologies. covidtracker.uksouth.cloudapp.azure.com/But there isn’t now a new 5000 excess deaths. They were always there. I already explained that, the shift to 28 days creates another 5000 excess supposedly non covid deaths. I’m guessing you thought I was referring to overall rather than unexplained, maybe I wasn’t clear enough on that. Would like to see these cases where people were coded as covid rather than traffic accidents. Haven’t been able to find anything official myself from the UK, just one in Florida.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 13, 2020 19:44:15 GMT
Shifted where? Excess deaths is deaths over and above the average. If I get hit by a bus tomorrow and die or if I die from covid or if I die of a heart attack my death counts in daily figures. For the latter, as that's easier, cardiovascular effects are a major concern with covid and heart attacks are a manifestation of that, so it's very plausibly covid related if they have a diagnosis. I have these sorts of long term issues but I'm not going to keel over any time soon. If I do, it is pretty certain that covid did it and it's why I'm seen as a high risk. This bus analogy seems to crop up regularly from certain quarters. Would love to know it's provenance, can you link to it please? The odds are much less, obviously, for being knocked over and killed by one but I'm wondering where PHE have coded traffic accidents in that way. Evidence needed, as they say... EDIT: On the difference between 28 days, 60 days and so on, you can see the difference as this site has already adapted to the new methodologies. covidtracker.uksouth.cloudapp.azure.com/
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 13, 2020 18:21:47 GMT
How have excess deaths risen by 5000? Excess deaths is just the number of deaths over the 5 year average of deaths in the same period. They would always have been counted in this. I believe that we are now in the 7th week of reporting deaths below the 5 year average, so currently 7 weeks of negative excess deaths. Shifted if you are looking at overall numbers, added if you are looking at ‘unexplained’ ones. It’s a pretty transparent ploy.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 13, 2020 11:31:03 GMT
Death rates revised down by 5000 for England. Now only includes cases where there has been a positive test within the past 28 days. Not sure that some have picked up how much worse this is for the government. Because of this manipulation the excess deaths figure has just risen by 5000 with these deaths being nearly all from a time when there was zero community testing. People don’t just start dying in greater numbers out of nowhere and any knock on effect goes nowhere near explaining it (it may be seen in months to come but not then). If they were a business they’d be up for corporate manslaughter charges by now. Our inability to test people and gauge positives has been shocking. I know it brings us into line with other countries but it further exposes this failure. The seroprevalence figures out today are interesting, 6% or so nationwide. 13% in London. 32% asymptomatic at the lowest end of predictions making an IFR of 0.9% not including excess deaths and care homes where that lack of testing happened. With those an IFR of 1.58% but caveats with that. www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/Ward-et-al-120820-REACT-2.pdfEDIT: going through the figures and it shows just how well shielding has worked. Half the prevalence when you hit 65 and over and 10-20% lower for those with one or more underlying conditions. One weird one which keeps cropping up, current smokers markedly less likely to be positive. May give a clue as to the nature of the virus but more study needed on that.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 10, 2020 11:54:39 GMT
Agreed on that hospitalisations don’t pick up the cases of young people as they aren’t as ill. But these cases may have previously gone undetected. It’s only because of increased testing that these are now being uncovered. This is why I think that it’s hard to say we are seeing another spike. If you don’t test you don’t uncover the positives. But the fact that hospitalisations continue to drop as do those on ventilators seems to suggest that the situation is improving. We can only say they *were* improving as both your measures are lagging indicators. They don’t show what is happening now.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 10, 2020 11:07:44 GMT
Details are here, although number of people tested is lagged, so last figures are for two weeks ago. The two measures that will show any uptick are number of new cases and weekly positivity rate. Hospitalisations are dependent on age profile. covidtracker.uksouth.cloudapp.azure.comThe issues with cases though are false positives, targeted testing etc. There can be no arguing with the number of people hospitalised or those on ventilators. Effectively if you have covid-19 seriously enough you will be in hospital. False negatives are much more likely. False positives can only lead to people unnecessarily taking safety measures but false negatives are dangerous, as people go around thinking they are clear. The presymptomatic period is particularly a problem. I presume this is why there are many more tests than people tested, many countries test negatives twice as a matter of course. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895843/S0519_Impact_of_false_positives_and_negatives.pdfThe big problem with hospitalisations is that it doesn’t pick up what has been happening in areas such as around here with tightened measures. Many younger people who are not as ill as older people would be. It also suggests a larger number of asymptomatic cases alongside that (percentage is still unknown with some saying as many again, others much less than that).
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 10, 2020 0:30:00 GMT
I know that cases have gone up but so has the number of people being tested so it's hard to quantify the rise. However what is easy to quantify is the number of people currently in Hospital and also the number of people on ventilators. This has gone down week on week since the peak with no show so far of any rises. From coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcareLatest figures are from 6/7 August There are currently 1067 patients in hospital in the UK with COVID-19 There are currently 67 patients on mechanical ventilators in the UK (because of COVID-19) One week prior to the above dates There were 1183 patients in hospital and 91 on mechanical ventilators. So we can see that it is progressing downwards. I know that it will take a while for cases to progress to hospital admissions but we haven't seen any increases since the pubs opened, the protests, or lockdown was eased so I'm taking it as a positive. Details are here, although number of people tested is lagged, so last figures are for two weeks ago. The two measures that will show any uptick are number of new cases and weekly positivity rate. Hospitalisations are dependent on age profile. covidtracker.uksouth.cloudapp.azure.com
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 7, 2020 15:42:10 GMT
Yep. I think there's going to be a lot of time spent working in my living room with the curtains closed and a fan aimed directly at me. Some people love this kind of weather; I am not one of them. I lived in Toronto for several years, and it's the winters I miss, not the heat and humidity in summer. I've got my fan out of the garage, though I'm having some assembly issues... Curtain closing has been happening on sunny days since April. I'm not sure if I'd like somewhere like Toronto in the winter but I know I wouldn't in the summer. I already live in one of the most temperate countries in the world & it's still not temperate enough for me. If anyone know somewhere with a maximum summer temperature of 15 degrees... Iceland is about that usually. It also has the benefit of being stunningly beautiful and (in Reykjavik at least) with an excellent arts scene. www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/ge2kughet#?date=2020-08-07Tromsø in Northern Norway also looking good as an option. Has been called 'The Paris of the North'.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 7, 2020 15:39:05 GMT
25 degrees C maximum here for the next week. Cooler weather was one of the reasons I moved back up north.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 7, 2020 14:51:22 GMT
All of my posts on this are based on scientific evidence, I could attach links to each and everything but understood that those giving false information need to be weeded out. The rules about scaremongering and misinformation are the same for everyone. There isn’t a two tier system where some members are taken at face value as being reliable where others are not. You’re just like the rest of us, someone on a forum with an opinion. In the case of the post I referred to you were talking about the disease “ripping through families”, personifying the virus by implying that it has an intent “biding it’s time” “waiting for an opportunity “, all arguably inflammatory and have the potential to induce anxiety in people who read. We have reports from people who have complained about this sort of thing, and as a result some members have been warned and ultimately banned. People must back up their ‘facts’ with sources and where posts are felt to be deliberately trying to frighten people they’ll be removed. Ripping through families, with exponential spread in multigenerational households, is not a secret. I hesitated before deciding not to post a diagram from a study showing the extent of this because. quite frankly, it is scary. Personification is one of the main tools that medics are using to get the message across because dry, academic language is just not cutting it when they have so many spreading emotive messages that go against the actual science. All those public information films of now and yesteryear understood this. Anyone remember the classic, 'Lonely Water'? EDIT: Guardian now have a very good article on aerosols up on their site. More of this needed please from broadcast media and politicians. www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/aug/07/why-are-indoor-settings-higher-risk-for-covid-and-are-restaurants-safe?"Dr William Hanage, a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard University, says more information on effective ways to prevent transmission is helpful, but he stresses that outbreaks tend to occur because of similar factors. “It doesn’t take much digging to find examples of outbreaks in all kinds of places, and there’s a tendency to cherry-pick from them according to political priorities. But it is a mistake to fixate on a single outbreak, and better to recognise that they become more likely whenever people gather together indoors in poorly ventilated spaces.” The key issue, he adds, is the degree to which authorities try to prevent or encourage such gatherings. “I don’t understand how the British government maintains the cognitive dissonance required to suggest that relaxing restrictions in Europe leads to ‘second waves’ while encouraging British people to go to work or school or pubs will not have a similar impact.”"
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 7, 2020 12:42:18 GMT
I’m not sure whether to be saddened, unsurprised or shocked that people don’t yet understand the way that the virus travels through air and hangs there. Well I’m very sorry if you're saddened, surprised or shocked but the fact of the matter is that not everyone is as “into” this as some people seem to be. some people are just following the instructions and trying not to allow this disease to be the sole focus of their existence. Either way your earlier post, without any supporting facts to back up your statements, potentially fell into the scaremongering and misinformation category which we’ve asked people not to do. Thanks for the detail now provided. All of my posts on this are based on scientific evidence, I could attach links to each and everything but understood that those giving false information need to be weeded out. It’s not your fault, or any individuals fault, the blame lies in messaging and, further back, the way the UK government is hanging for too long onto notions that are being found to be incorrect. We have, maybe, three weeks, until indoor gatherings will explode in number. There is still time to act, we have the capacity to make these changes.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 7, 2020 12:24:37 GMT
I’m not sure whether to be saddened, unsurprised or shocked that people don’t yet understand the way that the virus travels through air and hangs there. This is why scientists need to be more visible and not governments. A more fluffy piece on this. www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02058-1Much more technical but this is a pretty unanimous view among scientists in this area. www.medscape.com/viewarticle/934837?src=uc_mscpedt&faf=1#vp_1Referred to as ‘the smoking gun’, Study that shows virus remains viable and able to replicate in aerosol form. In simple form, what not to do. If I could get anything through to people for the coming months, it is this. Don’t gather in groups indoors, invest in air filtration systems. If you can’t, then you must wear masks.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 7, 2020 10:59:10 GMT
Most have been able to escape the virus since March, allied with both government and self imposed measures this has artificially dampened its spread. By far the main driver has been keeping people from getting together indoors. By far.
Up here in West Yorks, as press have reported, our new cases are a result of the domino effect, which takes some weeks to start to become apparent. People who have limited symptoms, who are asymptomatic and who are not decreasing their mobility have kept this steady low level transmission increasing. Children, young people, indoor pub/restaurant goers and holidaymakers ensuring spread around the country and coming in from international destinations. This then spread through public facing workers, taxi drivers are being particularly hard hit here, for example. Most are Asian, many are in multigenerational households.They do a lot of airport runs and, for myself, I’ve seen the high numbers of taxis ferrying young pub goers who abide by no distancing or masks. Within the few days where these public facing workers have no symptoms it rips through their families.
The virus is biding its time, waiting for the opportunity. We didn’t get the rate of transmission down anywhere near enough to stop this. When people get together, in indoor spaces, without masks, talking to each other, it spreads and, through aerosolisation, it remains in that space in a viable form for much longer than thought.
Put people back in indoor spaces in numbers and you are in trouble. Do it without respect for masks and you are doubly so. Guess what the UK government’s plan is as we move into September?
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 6, 2020 15:07:55 GMT
You are well behind on this. I really do recommend that people start to properly engage with this at the level of medical experts. You are falling prey to media simplification and their just downright being well behind the curve. Look at the research on long term effects and you will get a better sense of where this is going.
No, I am really not behind on this - I'm up on everything - all the conflicting scientific opinion, but thanks for pointing it out.
I steer clear of most of the mainstream media and have a raft of credible sources
Go straight to the source, if anybody is commenting on it they are spinning. Searchable database of each published study here - zika.ispm.unibe.ch/assets/data/pub/search_beta/
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 6, 2020 14:50:45 GMT
This is not flu-like. This is the major mistake made early on and some people are still dangerously fixated on that, including the UK government it seems. It starts out as respiratory but then rapidly turned into something much wider. Much damage is done to the cardiovascular system. If yours is already compromised then you can expect serious consequences, from further deterioration to death. If it isn’t then a serious response will cause CVD. Only now are those who have had limited symptoms finding this has affected them. There is also growing concern over long term neurological damage. This is not “flu-like”. Nowhere near. To vulnerable, old and people with risk factors, no. However the rest of us will get over it - the way we get over flu.
That's the reality, not the narrative being pushed to the point of brainwashing.
You are well behind on this. I really do recommend that people start to properly engage with this at the level of medical experts. You are falling prey to media simplification and their just downright being well behind the curve. Look at the research on long term effects and you will get a better sense of where this is going.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 6, 2020 14:47:35 GMT
Anyone who has decided to mix with others needs to steer clear of me because of my own health concerns. That they don't (and many just won't) is the largest growing mental health problem here. I was out for a late night walk recently and saw a younger colleague breezily going into the pub. Are they going to distance from me if back in work? Unlikely, so, for me, I can only see months of torture ahead. Some days, being faced with this, makes it barely livable.
The mental health costs of the 'I can't believe it's not herd immunity' approach are massive, let alone the physical costs of which we are becoming all too aware.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 6, 2020 13:12:04 GMT
This looks interesting, I've experienced a number of audio/immersive/promenade style shows in the last couple of decades and they are often my most memorable experiences of the year. (in French) www.leparisien.fr/culture-loisirs/theatre-on-a-suivi-c-o-n-t-a-c-t-la-premiere-piece-distanciee-dans-les-rues-de-paris-13-06-2020-8334996.php"ABOUT C-O-N-T-A-C-T - CENTRAL Award-winning producer Katy Lipson & Aria Entertainment join forces with Mathilde Moulin & WEF Productions to present the UK Premiere of C-O-N-T-A-C-T, a thrilling, vital and inspired new theatrical experience for our socially-distanced times. A young woman sits alone on a park bench, lost in her own thoughts. What is she thinking? Dive into her mind in this unique sensory and immersive theatre experience. After taking the streets of Paris by storm, with sell-out performances, C-O-N-T-A-C-T now journeys to the streets and parks of London, offering its unique blend of immersive theatre and sensorial soundscapes to a whole new audience, eager to once again experience live theatre. Become totally immersed in the world of our characters for 50 remarkable minutes, as you plug into this joyous, poetic and liberating experience, literally. Delivered via an app created especially for this exciting new show, you will be swept-away by state-of- the-art 3D sound design as you use your smartphone and headphones to navigate the performance. Walk the path shoulder to shoulder with the performers and share their sensations and thoughts, as the action unfolds before your eyes. This unique, bold and life-affirming production pushes the boundaries of what live theatre can achieve, allowing us to redefine what ‘performance’ means to us, and ultimately encouraging us to fall in love with theatre all over again. Limited outdoor season in London from 31 August, 6 weeks only. Book now." There are three versions in different parts of London, apparently.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 6, 2020 12:40:16 GMT
I think it's quite glib to say that audiences 'just have to accept it'. Feeling safe is the priority and audiences won't feel safe gathering for a long time yet.
Well, if they want theatre to survive on the offchance they may contract a flu like virus that we're just going to have to live with.
Make your choice. Some of us are happy to get on with it, and not live cowering in fear.
This is not flu-like. This is the major mistake made early on and some people are still dangerously fixated on that, including the UK government it seems. It starts out as respiratory but then rapidly turned into something much wider. Much damage is done to the cardiovascular system. If yours is already compromised then you can expect serious consequences, from further deterioration to death. If it isn’t then a serious response will cause CVD. Only now are those who have had limited symptoms finding this has affected them. There is also growing concern over long term neurological damage. This is not “flu-like”. Nowhere near.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 5, 2020 20:56:35 GMT
Closing things in the evenings, daytime okay but travel restrictions. I thought they’d be trying out “all work and no play” lockdowns and this looks like a version of it. This outbreak was largely linked to a few bars so a lot of innocent people have been affected. NS isn't messing about with the Schools back next week. Maybe if it is the younger generation socializing which is causing these outbreaks or perhaps more correctly people recklessly socializing then hopefully others will start holding them to account as it was when the finger was pointed at certain Asian centric areas. Some younger Asian people may well have been ignoring guidelines but if they did cause outbreaks within their family or community I could well see them being held to account by their peers. We still need to know why our death rate has been so high even highlighted by the Orange President last night. Don't forget the Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance talked about 20k deaths. People of his standing don't pluck a figure out of the air. That was likely a medium case scenario ballpark figure which would have been researched. So he might have been expecting something in say 15 to 25k region. I wouldn’t call others in bars ‘innocent’. They are mixing with others knowing full well the risks of doing so. The truly innocent are the taxi driver, the bar staff and the person they get a takeaway off. They are the ones I have the most sympathy for.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 5, 2020 12:27:41 GMT
Score easily outstrips the book as far as I can remember.
The CD is notoriously a very dodgy pressing. My first copy had become unplayable so I got another and this one seems okay, still, although I can detect some roughness in the audio compared to the digital copy I made when it was pristine.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 5, 2020 12:25:03 GMT
Aberdeen to go into lockdown Closing things in the evenings, daytime okay but travel restrictions. I thought they’d be trying out “all work and no play” lockdowns and this looks like a version of it.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 3, 2020 15:20:25 GMT
There appears to be three options here. 1) Keep things as they are with R rate slightly over 1 and use local lockdowns to try and stop it getting higher (the whack a mole approach). This means no return for offices or schools, though. 2) Trade off what we have now for opening something else. The problem here is that so little has changed that even closing everything back down again is likely not enough to enable schools and/or offices and the associated activity, to reopen. You get an ‘all work, no play lockdown’ and have to hope it works. Meanwhile either Sunak props ebery business up or they go to the wall. 3) Let it rip and shield anyone vulnerable (the over fifties/at risk option). This is basically herd immunity 2.0 and we saw what happened in reaction to version 1.0. The truth is that we are on the edge of the possible. Whatever Johnson desires he can’t have cake and eat cake. EDIT: Actually, there’s a fourth but they’ve pretty much nixed this one. Lockdown everything for a month then release. Then keep doing the same if necessary. I don't see how third option could work, it could weaken a lot of healthy people and to shield the vulnerable would be hard and they could be left without care and still at risk. What is Scotland doing as their schools open within 2 weeks. Nicola Sturgeon isn't going into this blindly. Local lockdowns are likely way forward but if you do age restricted lockdowns wouldn't you be open to challenges in court for age discrimination/ civil liberties not just from the deniers but from age related charities. Imagine you had age timed lockdowns or different ages allowed out at different times. I'd mentioned elsewhere but other press have been much clearer than ranting headlines suggesting a blanket shielding. In essence, age (the biggest factor) but that may be ameliorated by low personal health risk and/or low workplace risk. The problem with those saying 'I'm sixty and I've never been fitter' is that they are mistaking external for internal. No matter who you are, your organs, your cardiovascular system are getting more worn out as you age. Some more than others, yes, but that is where health assessments need to come in. I've also been depressed by the large numbers my age and older saying that shielding is 'punishment' and 'why can't under 40s be locked down seeing as they are flouting the regulations?'. It is protection not 'punishment' and shielding those less at risk is just ridiculous.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Aug 3, 2020 15:09:26 GMT
Come on fella, that was one of the the worst but the government has made more than one absolutely unforgiveable mistake Hindsight is always great. We don't know how Labour would have handled it, JC, Abbott and McDonnell leading the briefings might have been something to watch. Sir Kier I'd have confident of leading a measured response. I think that the Chancellor has had his standing go up and Rishi is now a legit future Party Leader. Rabb has been authoritive and solid. No other minister has covered themselves in glory. Prof Whitty and Sir Patrick have done their job solidly, Jenny Harries again safe pair of hands, Prof JVT was excellent and the best explainer of the lot going into points but breaking it down and justifying his views with solid facts. Yvonne Doyle - way out of her depth like Dido Harding. Stephen Powis solid but unspectacular. Dr Nikki Kanani clearly a rising star not 40 yet, very articulate and media friendly. Will be likely Medical Director of PHE or go into CMO or DCMO level job in a few years time. Hmm, not all of those I would agree with. Sunak, yes, Raab, yes (surprisingly, to me). Pretty much the rest of government all terrible. Johnson, appalling, Gove, invisible, Patel, vindictive, Williamson, a walking 'humilating climbdown' machine. On the health side most have been poor. Whitty and Vallance have been too weak and made the mistake of not being seen as separate to government. Harries is just useless, from her awful start with the fawning Johnson Q&A that seeded so many untruths that it has taken months to undo she just went downhill and lacks any sort of credibility and trust. Van Tam very good, though. and had that separation that Whitty and Vallance lacked. Beyond these public faces there have been many more effective specialists who have cut though better.
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